All the GOP House incumbents swept away in the blue wave

Democrats had a historic night Tuesday , sweeping both chambers of Congress and making gains deep into Republican territory .

The party won nearly everywhere it was expected to and in places people never thought it had a chance. As of Wednesday afternoon, 27 House incumbents had been projected to lose their seats by Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), and eight more were trailing in the count with no projection.

No state was a greater source of shock and defeat for Republicans than North Carolina, where the party has already lost five seats — one of them open — and trails in another.

Rep. Brad Knott (R) lost to Democrat Paul Barringer in North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District . In the 14th Congressional District, Rep. Tim Moore (R) lost to Democrat LaKesha Womack. Democrats flipped the 6th Congressional District as well, with Rep. Addison McDowell (R) losing to Democrat Cyril Jefferson. And in the 9th Congressional District , the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Rep. Richard Hudson, lost to Democrat Richard Ojeda. Each defeat was by 2 points or just higher.

In all four of those races, Democrats had less than a 25 percent chance of winning in DDHQ’s preelection forecast.

In the 5th Congressional District, Rep. Virginia Foxx trails by just 99 votes to Democrat Chuck Hubbard. DDHQ has not projected a winner in that race.

Pennsylvania Republicans also had a rough go of it as four incumbents were defeated.

Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) lost to Democrat Bob Brooks in the 7th Congressional District by a 13-point margin. Just north of the 7th District, Democrat Paige Cognetti defeated Rep. Rob Bresnahan in the 8th District by just less than 9 points . Both Mackenzie and Bresnahan won their seats in 2024.

Two incumbents who have resisted waves before also fell to defeat. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R), a moderate member who sometimes publicly disagrees with President Trump, lost to Democrat Bob Harvie in the 1st Congressional District . And in the Harrisburg area, Rep. Scott Perry (R) — a former Freedom Caucus chair who voted not to certify the election in 2020 — lost to Democrat Janelle Stelson by a 10-point margin .

Just across the Delaware River, two incumbents lost in New Jersey. Rep. Tom Kean Jr., a Republican who was absent from the House for months without explanation, lost to Democrat Rebecca Bennett by nearly 16 points . Kean ultimately revealed he had depression. And in South Jersey, Rep. Jeff Van Drew was defeated by Democrat Zack Mullock in a big upset . Van Drew initially flipped a GOP-held seat in 2018 as a Democrat but switched parties in 2019 .

In New York’s Hudson Valley, Rep. Mike Lawler (R) trails Democrat Cait Conley in the 17th Congressional District, though DDHQ has not called the race. A ballot scanning issue in a key county in the district delayed counting Tuesday. Lawler, though, has conceded .

In Virginia, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) lost to former Rep. Elaine Luria (D) by nearly 9 points in the 2nd Congressional District. Kiggans beat Luria back in 2022 but faced headwinds amid the Iran war in the military-dominated district. And in the 1st Congressional District, Democrat Shannon Taylor defeated Rep. Rob Wittman by just more than 1 point.

Democrats in Ohio had a strong night , winning the marquee statewide races and defeating three House incumbents. Rep. Max Miller (R) lost to Democrat Brian Poindexter in the 7th Congressional District by nearly 10 points. Miller’s campaign was blown up by allegations of domestic abuse against his daughter and ex-wife, who happens to be the daughter of Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno (R).

Rep. Mike Turner (R), a moderate congressman in the 10th Congressional District, lost to Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker by just less than 2 points . In the neighboring 15th Congressional District , Rep. Mike Carey lost to Democrat Don Leonard by more than 6 points.

Just north in Michigan, one Republican incumbent was defeated and another one trails. Rep. Tom Barrett lost reelection to Democrat William Lawrence in the 7th Congressional District by just more than 3 points. In the 4th Congressional District, Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) trails Democrat Sean McCann by a little less than 2 points, but DDHQ has not yet projected a winner.

Wisconsin Democrats defeated two GOP incumbents, in the 1st and 3rd congressional districts. In the 3rd District , Rep. Derrick Van Orden lost to Democrat Rebecca Cooke by just more than 6 points. Rep. Bryan Steil lost to Democrat Mitchell Berman in the 1st District by nearly 4 points .

Two Republican incumbents lost in Iowa: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the 1st Congressional District and Rep. Zach Nunn in the 3rd Congressional District. Miller-Meeks, who won election to Congress by just six votes in 2020, lost to Democrat Christina Bohannan — their third time facing each other — by more than 9 points . Nunn lost to Democrat Sarah Garriott by 7 points.

In Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District , Rep. Ann Wagner lost to Democrat Fred Wellman by nearly 5 points. Missouri Republicans attempted to redraw the maps but were stopped last minute from doing so by a court decision, putting the 2nd District back on the map.

The suburban Indianapolis 5th Congressional District changed hands as well, with Rep. Victoria Spartz losing to Democrat J.D. Ford by more than 3 points.

In South Texas, Rep. Monica De La Cruz lost to Democrat Bobby Pulido by more than 22 points in the state’s 15th Congressional District. Trump won the 15th District by nearly 20 points in 2024, marking a huge shift to the Democrats in the heavily Latino district.

In Arizona, Democrats defeated one GOP incumbent with Rep. Juan Ciscomani’s loss to Democrat JoAnna Mendoza in the 6th Congressional District. Rep. Eli Crane (R) also trails Democrat Jonathan Nez in the 2nd Congressional District, though DDHQ has not called the race.

California Democrats successfully defeated two incumbents using their redrawn map , a response to a gerrymander passed by Texas Republicans. In the 1st Congressional District , Rep. James Gallagher lost to Democrat Mike McGuire, and in the 22nd Congressional District , Rep. David Valadao lost to Democrat Randy Villegas.

Only one incumbent has lost so far in Colorado, but that number has the potential to grow. Rep. Gabe Evans lost reelection to Democrat Manny Rutinel in the 8th Congressional District , but Reps. Lauren Boebert and Jeff Crank both trail their Democratic challengers in the 4th and 5th congressional districts, respectively. Boebert nearly lost in the 3rd Congressional District in 2022, and moved to the 4th District , which was thought to be a safer district for her to run in.

Some potential upsets brewing — but where DDHQ has not yet called a winner — come in Minnesota and Tennessee. In Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District, Rep. Brad Finstad (R) trails his Democratic opponent, Jake Johnson, by less than 500 votes. And in Tennessee’s 4th Congressional District, Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R) trails Democrat Victoria Broderick by fewer than 300 votes in a district Trump won by nearly 25 points in 2024. DDHQ’s preelection forecast gave Broderick just a 3 percent chance of winning.

DDHQ makes a projection in a race when it has greater than 99 percent certainty of the call. Late arriving mail ballots or provisional ballots could shift the final margins in the closest races.