Cook Political Report shifts Ohio governor’s race from toss-up to lean Democrat

The Cook Political Report is shifting a closely watched gubernatorial contest toward Democrats after a controversial campaign ad shook up the race.

The nonpartisan election forecaster moved the governor’s race in Ohio from “toss up” to “lean Democrat,” now favoring Amy Acton (D) to beat Vivek Ramaswamy (R) in the Buckeye State.

The race was the source of national attention after Ramaswamy debuted an ad with Acton’s estranged mother, who claims Acton is a “liar” and encourages voters not to elect her as Ohio governor.

Acton was removed from her mother’s custody at age 12. Her campaign said that she was sexually abused by her stepfather, who her mother remained with until his death.

The ad was widely condemned by Democrats and even some Republicans , including current Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R). Still, President Trump and Vice President Vance have both vehemently defended the ad.

Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report’s Senate and governor’s editor, wrote in her analysis that Republicans they have talked to do not think the ad was a smart move.

“We haven’t talked to a GOP source who thought this was a good idea,” Taylor wrote. “This is not the kind of TV ad you run if you’re winning — or even if you’re confident you can. Recent polls were trending in Acton’s direction even before the bombshell ad became a national news story.”

Cook conducted a poll of the Ohio gubernatorial race before the ad was released and found Acton leading Ramaswamy by five points. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, another nonpartisan election forecaster, also changed its rating from “toss up” to “leans Democratic” earlier this week.

Acton’s fundraising has surged since the release of the ad, which Ramaswamy’s campaign is now spending $4 million to put on the air.

Nonpartisan election forecaster Decision Desk HQ, a partner of The Hill, gives Acton a 62 percent chance of victory.