Prospects looking ‘bleak’ for New Jersey Republican who went missing for months

Embattled New Jersey Rep. Thomas Kean Jr.’s (R) hopes of hanging on to his battleground seat may be dimming after national Republicans effectively abandoned the race last week.

The fierce contest between Kean and Democrat Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot, has tipped in her favor in recent weeks . The Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), a PAC backed by House GOP leadership, reportedly canceled its remaining advertising for the race.

Ashley Koning, director of the polling operation at Rutgers University, called the CLF’s move a “death knell” for Kean.

“They are also trying to triage across the country and putting their money in races that they deem more winnable and don’t necessarily see those same possible changes for Kean,” Koning said, referencing the tough political environment for Republicans. She characterized his chances in November as “bleak.”

Kean made national headlines earlier this year after a more than 100-day absence from his duties in the House. He revealed the reason for his absence — depression — only after his return to Capitol Hill in June. Kean has voted against paid sick leave legislation both in Congress and during his time in the New Jersey state House.

“As the over 48 million of my fellow Americans being treated for this illness have come to discover, there is no timeline for healing. There is no timeline for recovery. Only the work of getting better one day at a time,” Kean said in June when he returned to Washington, D.C., adding that he is “healthier, stronger, and excited to return to the work that I love.”

Campaign finance filings released last week showed that Bennett outraised Kean by more than $2 million in the last quarter, though Kean still holds an overall cash advantage over Bennett going into the final two weeks before Election Day.

Harrison Neely, a spokesperson for the Kean campaign, said despite the CLF pullout, Republicans are still “massively” outspending Democrats in the 7th District.

“This is still a very well-funded effort that will be at parity with our opponents,” Neely said. “And historically, that hasn’t been the case in this district, we’ve always been outspent.”

Michael Armento, a Republican Town Council member in Kean’s hometown of Westfield who has campaigned with the incumbent, pushed back on the doomsayers. He said the Kean campaign indicated in a closed-door meeting Thursday that CLF was simply “redistributing funds” and that the move was not indicative of the state of the race.

“His campaign feels very strongly they can win,” Armento told The Hill.

Regardless, Kean faces an uphill battle for the seat as he struggles to compete with anti-Trump frustration and his own record of absence. His office was largely silent on his whereabouts, only saying he was dealing with a medical issue , much to the chagrin of constituents and fellow members of Congress.

“You can’t schedule a medical emergency, and the Congressman was honest about it,” Neely said. “He’s stronger than ever now and fully back to work.”

New Jersey’s sprawling 7th District covers some of the wealthy New York City suburbs and extends west to the Pennsylvania border. Democrats have felt increasingly bullish about flipping the seat amid the scrutiny and political headwinds blowing in their favor.

“The demographic makeup of this district is also paralleling where we see suburban voters going nationally, leaning [away from] Trump and toward the Democratic Party,” Koning said.

Kean is also unlikely to get much help from the top of the ticket, with Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) expected to safely win against Republican nominee Justin Murphy.

Although Kean won reelection by 5 percentage points in 2024, President Trump won the district by just about 1 point the same year. Koning pointed to the president’s poor approval ratings, particularly among suburban voters, as working in Bennett’s favor.

Kean, the son of popular former New Jersey Gov. Thomas H. Kean (R), flipped the seat in 2022, but Republicans had dominated the district for four decades before a Democrat won in 2018.

Bennett told the New Jersey Globe last week that while she is feeling optimistic about her chances, Republicans are still spending big in the right-leaning district.

“The race is not done,” Bennett told the Globe.