Peltola takes slight lead in Alaska Senate race

Democrat Mary Peltola has taken a slight lead in Alaska’s Senate race by about 500 votes, results from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) show , putting a possible eighth flip in the Senate in reach.

As of almost 11 a.m. Wednesday, Peltola leads Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) with 48.2 percent to his 47.9 percent with 70 percent of the expected vote counted.

Alaska does not have counties, instead separating its votes by state house district. DDHQ shows that Peltola is exceeding her “benchmarks” — the estimated result she would need to be on track to win statewide — in 26 out of 40 state house districts. Sullivan is exceeding his marks in the other 14, DDHQ shows.

Peltola now leads in a majority of state house districts, at 24. The outstanding vote also suggests that the former congresswoman may have more room to grow her lead — districts where she is ahead are averaging 68.6 percent of the expected vote reported, while districts where Sullivan is ahead are averaging 73.2 percent of the expected vote reported.

Still, if neither candidate reaches 50 percent, Alaska will proceed with an instant runoff using its ranked choice voting (RCV) system. RCV will tally up voters’ second, third and fourth place votes, if they ranked all candidates, and add to the remaining candidates’ vote shares until one candidate has the majority.

But that process cannot happen until all voters are counted and processed in Alaska. Given the rural and expansive nature of the state, ballots have 15 days after the election to arrive.

A proposition to repeal RCV was on this year’s ballot in Alaska, and it is losing by a nearly 4-point margin, according to DDHQ.

Alaska will not report more votes until Nov. 10, when most remaining early and mail ballots will be counted, according to nonpartisan election news site Votebeat. The final votes will be included in the count on Nov. 18, when the state will run RCV if necessary.

A win for Democrats in Alaska was once thought to be a necessity for the party to win back control of the Senate. Now, it would just be one more seat.

Democrats already picked up seven Senate seats, DDHQ projections show, with Alaska and Mississippi still outstanding. The gains were part of a big night for Democrats nationally in which they reclaimed control of Congress with healthy margins.