Democrat Zach Dembo projected to flip Kentucky House seat

Democrat Zach Dembo, a Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor, is projected to win Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), flipping a Republican-held seat in a major pickup for Democrats.

Dembo was leading Republican Ralph Alvarado 55 percent to 41 percent with 92 percent of the vote reported by DDHQ as of 9:07 p.m. EST.

Dembo defeated Alvarado, a former Kentucky state senator and physician endorsed by President Trump, in the race to succeed Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.), who opted to run for the Senate.

The victory marks the first time a Democrat has won the central Kentucky seat since former Rep. Ben Chandler (D-Ky.), who lost his reelection bid to Barr in 2012.

The district, which includes Lexington and parts of central Kentucky, was initially expected to remain safely in Republican hands. Trump carried it by roughly 15 percentage points in 2024, while Barr won reelection that year by more than 26 points.

But the race grew increasingly competitive in the months leading up to Election Day. The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report moved the contest from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” in October as Democrats continued to mount a serious challenge for the open seat.

Dembo, who has never held elected office, previously served as a Navy Judge Advocate General’s Corps officer and as a federal prosecutor. He also spent some time working for Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D). He chose to resign from his role at the Justice Department under the Trump administration after viewing what he described as a shocking amount of corruption in Washington, D.C.

The Democrat defeated former Kentucky state Rep. Cherlynn Stevenson and several other Democrats in a crowded May primary.

Dembo described himself as a “Beshear Democrat,” seeking to build on the crossover appeal of the Democratic governor, who won his reelection bid in 2023 despite the state’s strong Republican lean.

Beshear, who stayed neutral during the primary, endorsed Dembo in the general election and campaigned alongside him in events leading up to the midterm elections. The campaign sought to tie Alvarado to former Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin (R), who was defeated by Beshear in his reelection bid. Alvarado was Bevin’s running mate on that ticket.

Dembo’s campaign focused on affordability and accountability, criticizing Trump’s economic policies, including tariffs, while promising to fight corruption. He also sought to appeal to voters across party lines by highlighting his military service and law enforcement background.