Whole Hog Politics: Republicans have been irrationally exuberant about Hispanic voters. It may cost them

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Here’s a midterm microcosm for you: National Republicans are pulling out of the effort to defeat Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar (Texas) in a district that runs from south of San Antonio all along the Rio Grande.

It was an ill omen then that the same day the party was cutting its losses there, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) visited the district next door and, appearing with Cuellar’s Republican challenger, announced: “South Texas will literally decide the majority in the country.”

It’s been a week of sail trimming for Republicans, with Washington even pulling the plug on a couple of incumbent House members. Given the massive cash advantage that the GOP has wielded so ostentatiously throughout the cycle, kissing off sitting members is a marker of serious panic for the party in power.

But it’s Texas that’s been, ahem, deep in the heart of Republicans’ vision for a this-time-is-different kind of midterm cycle.

Cuellar’s district was a prime target in the GOP’s gerrymandering effort that kicked off the coast-to-coast redistricting battle. Republican lawmakers in Austin nudged Cuellar’s longtime constituency about 3 points to the right, based on 2024 numbers. President Trump won the old district with 53 percent of the vote. He would have won the new district with 55 percent. But Cuellar, whom Trump even tried to get to switch parties with a presidential pardon, seems to be having a smooth ride to reelection as a Democrat.

The district, Texas’s 28th, was one of 13 across the country in which voters preferred Trump for president but chose Democrats for the House. Back in the heady days of the early 2025 “vibe shift,” these were the districts in which Republicans claimed would allow them to actually expand their skinny majority in midterms. Granted, that’s mostly just stuff people say. It’s not like party leaders can start their candidate recruitment and fundraising drive saying, “We’re probably heading for the minority, but your millions could help save a few seats here and there.” But Republicans may have been more serious than the typical midterm bloviators. And that’s because of Texas — Hispanic Texas particularly.

Another of those 13 split-ticket districts is right next door to Cuellar’s: the already swing-y 34th, where a similar 3-point gerrymander nudge was supposed to knock out Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas). Gonzales doesn’t look like a lock yet, but certainly he’s favored to win in a climate that just keeps improving for Democrats in the closing weeks. (In fact, of the original 13 targets by the National Republican Campaign Committee, only one — Maine’s 2nd — is rated as a GOP lean. Eleven are blue, and one — North Carolina’s 1st — is a toss-up.)

But Republicans weren’t just imagining their 2026 opportunity, especially in South Texas. Nationwide, Hispanic voters swung 8 points to the right from 2020 to 2024, with 43 percent backing Trump’s bid for a second term, which was even higher than the previous modern record for Republicans with Hispanic voters: former President George W. Bush ’s 35 percent in 2000. And Texas led the charge.

Webb County, home to Laredo, is the southern anchor of Cuellar’s district. It’s big, with a population of nearly 300,000, and at least 95 percent of its residents are Hispanic. It’s also prosperous, with the highest household income of any of Texas’s Hispanic-majority counties. And it was overwhelmingly Democratic. In 2012 and 2016, Democratic presidential candidates won Webb by more than 50 points.

It should have been alarming to Democrats then when in 2020 as the party was running well ahead of its 2016 performance, Webb County saw its Democratic vote share almost cut in half. That 20-point decline wasn’t the floor, either. In 2024, the Republican presidential candidate carried Webb County for the first time since former President William Howard Taft in 1912. A Democratic stronghold that had survived landslides in 1952, 1956, 1972 and 1984 collapsed in the relatively close 2024 contest. Opinions vary on the principal cause, but some combination of anger at the high cost of living and disorder at the U.S.-Mexico border are the conventional culprits. But, Republicans wondered if it wasn’t something deeper and that a larger realignment among Hispanic voters was underway.

The national polling we have about Hispanic voters’ attitudes this cycle says that the relationship between the GOP and Latinos has reverted to pre-2024 levels, with 35 percent preferring Republican control of Congress. That’s not as low as it was in the Obama era, so there are some likely long-term gains for the red team. But it’s certainly at least back to where the party started at the outset of the Trump era.

Of course, Hispanic voters aren’t a national constituency any more than white voters are. Hispanic voters in California are very different from those in Arizona, who are very different from those in Florida, who are very different from those in New York and Texas, and so on. One’s political affiliation tends to have more to do with geography, marital status, income, educational attainment, etc., than one’s surname. Indeed, Democrats’ tendency to treat Hispanic voters as monolithic and obsessed with lenient immigration policies helps explain some of the party’s slide since the 2010s.

But Republicans seem to have made a similar error in reverse by failing to see how a group, especially in working-class south Texas, would be sensitive to high consumer prices. Or how a group that lamented a chaotic situation at the border would similarly dislike overbroad, aggressive internal enforcement that often appears to be ethnic profiling.

Part of the reason Republicans are pulling money from other races right now is that the Texas gerrymandering bid that was supposed to grow the GOP majority has turned into a colossally expensive proposition . Texas is a costly place to run elections under good circumstances, but a hellaciously pricey one if you’re fighting the tide.

Republicans might have saved themselves money, time and trouble if instead of focusing on the big 2024 swing, they had looked a little deeper. In the previous two midterm cycles, Webb County stayed very Democratic. In 2018, when former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) was chasing Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Webb County came in for the Democrat 71 percent to 28 percent. That doesn’t mean that Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico is guaranteed to replicate that kind of performance, but it would have been good for Republicans to have at least considered in the crazy days of 2025.

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Change from one week ago: ↓ 2.8 points (-28.2 points)

Change from one month ago: ↓ 5.8 points (-25.2 points)

[ Average includes: AP/NORC: 35 percent approve – 64 percent disapprove; Fox News: 36 percent approve – 64 percent disapprove; Ipsos/Reuters: 32 percent approve – 65 percent disapprove; Pew Research Center: 30 percent approve – 68 percent disapprove; Quinnipiac University: 33 percent approve – 60 percent disapprove ]

Change from one week ago: ↓ 0.6 points (D + 9.6 points)

Change from one month ago: 0 points (D +9 points)

[ Average includes: AP/NORC 47 percent Democratic – 38 percent Republican; Fox News 54 percent Democratic – 45 percent Republican; Ipsos/Reuters: 44 percent Democratic – 37 percent Republican; Pew Research Center 44 percent Democratic – 36 percent Republican; Quinnipiac University: 51 percent Democratic – 39 percent Republican ]

Le Monde : “Two paintings by impressionist master Pierre-Auguste Renoir , stolen from a museum in southern France and later discovered hidden behind a wall, have sustained slight damage, prosecutors said … In September, thieves broke into the museum in Cagnes-sur-Mer and escaped with two works by Renoir, abandoning two others as they fled. The value of all four paintings had been estimated at [about $10 million]. On Friday, authorities announced that the two outstanding stolen works had been found. … Speaking to reporters in Paris, Marseille prosecutor Nicolas Bessone said the paintings were recovered … during a search of a home in the southern town of Clermont-l’Herault. The discovery of the stolen works followed the arrest of six people, including a woman, last Wednesday, said Bessone. ‘The paintings were hidden behind a solid cinderblock wall. They were completely undetectable,’ Bessone said. ‘It was through interrogation work that investigators were able to get the receiver of the stolen goods to admit that he had indeed taken possession of the paintings.’”

Tighter in Texas as Paxton gains on Talarico: Marist University : “In the race for U.S. Senate in Texas, Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are competitive with only two points separating the two candidates among likely voters statewide. Talarico is +4 points against Paxton among registered voters, notched down slightly from six points last month. Looking at the generic congressional ballot question, the Republicans are +5 points against the Democrats on the ballot among likely voters. However, the margin narrows among registered voters where Republicans are +3 points. Less than one month ago, the Democratic candidates had a 3-point edge among registered voters. In the Texas governor’s race, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott is +4 points against Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa among likely voters. Among registered voters, just one point separates the two gubernatorial candidates. Previously, Hinojosa had a 3-point edge against Abbott among registered voters.”

Another Texas poll in the margin of error: USA Today : “Texas voters are split on the U.S. Senate race heading into early voting, with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico holding a narrow edge over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows Paxton trailing Talarico, 47% to 50%, within the poll’s 3.3-point margin of error, with 1% of voters preferring Libertarian Ted Brown and 2% preferring an unspecified ‘someone else.’ It’s the latest in a string of October polls showing the race tightening in a state that last elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in 1988.

Paxton spotted partying with fugitive donors in Dubai: The Wall Street Journal : “As fireworks exploded over the Burj Khalifa skyscraper to welcome 2025, Paxton and his girlfriend Tracy Duhon watched from a luxury high-rise balcony full of people, according to a video of the gathering viewed by The Wall Street Journal, details of which were contained in court filings and confirmed by people familiar with the matter. Among those at the event with Texas’ top law-enforcement official were two Americans who had been indicted months before on federal healthcare-fraud charges but failed to return to the U.S., Anosh Ahmed and Sameer Suhail , according to the court records and people familiar with the matter. Ahmed, a healthcare executive, had donated $190,000 to Paxton, campaign-finance records show, including $25,000 days after he was indicted.”

Iowa Senate race looking like a squeaker: Marist University : “Just three points separate Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson among likely voters in the U.S. Senate race in Iowa. Turek opens up a seven-point advantage against Hinson, among registered voters, comparable to his lead last month. On the generic congressional ballot question, the Republicans have a three-point edge among likely voters against the Democrats running for Congress. Two points separate the congressional candidates among registered voters, marking a shift from a +5-point advantage for the Democrats last month. Looking to the governor’s contest in Iowa, Democrat Rob Sand has a seven-point lead against Republican Zach Lahn among likely voters statewide. Sand’s lead opens up to 11 points among registered, comparable to the advantage Sand held last month.”

Hinson defects from Trump over Russian diesel deal: The Hill : “Iowa Senate GOP candidate Ashley Hinson said on Tuesday that she didn’t agree with a recent deal President Trump struck with Russia that would import 300,000 tons of diesel to the U.S. and global marketplace, taking issue with the U.S. making a deal with an adversary. ‘We need to lower gas prices in this country. We need to lower diesel prices, but I don’t think we need to be making a deal with Russia to do it,’ Hinson said during the second televised Iowa Senate debate hosted by WHO 13, an affiliate of Nexstar, which also owns The Hill. ‘I think we should be doing it by lowering the gas tax temporarily, making sure we’re actually looking at potentially a diesel rebate program for our producers, investing in America’s biofuels, which is the homegrown answer that we have right here in Iowa,’ she added.”

Ossoff pledges to serve out Senate term, cooling some 2028 chatter: Politico : “Asked by Greg Bluestein of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution whether he would serve his full term if he wins in November, [Georgia Sen. Jon] Ossoff replied: ‘Yes, I will.’ The remarks are Ossoff’s most forceful rejection yet of a potential 2028 presidential bid even as his name has repeatedly surfaced in national Democrats’ conversations about possible contenders for the party’s nomination. His public commitment to a full Senate term on Tuesday is the latest of his campaign’s many efforts to tamp down that speculation. Ossoff gained national attention this year given his strong fundraising numbers, his consistent lead in public polling against [Georgia Rep. Mike] Collins and his ability to generate viral moments on the campaign trail, particularly through his attacks on President Donald Trump.”

After musing about a possible post-election departure, Johnson vows to remain GOP House leader if his party loses majority — CBS News

Meet the mega-donors fueling the Democratic far left — The Wall Street Journal

Elon Musk resumes role as GOP’s biggest benefactor, $276 million and counting — The New York Times

Cook moves four more gubernatorial races, including Alaska, away from GOP — Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

Chair of Montana Democratic Party resigns in protest of Senate nominee — The Hill

GOP ad firm runs attack ads in Portland, Ore., instead of Portland, Maine — The New York Times

Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) hot ticket on the midterm trail — The Washington Sun

Idaho voters to choose official state firearm in November ballot referendum — KIRO

GOP gubernatorial nominee, Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), makes an AI Kendrick Lamar video to promote early voting — The Hill

“I don’t think you have a dog in this fight but if you did you would have shot it.” — Musician Kasey Musgraves responding to former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem ’s swipe at her for endorsing Democrat James Talarico for Senate

“If people give us a chance, we should understand that we’re sort of the rebound boyfriend. They’re going to give us a first date. They’re not trying to marry us. They are just sort of being forced into our arms.” — Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) explaining midterm voter dynamics

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FOR DESSERT: THE ELUSIVE UNDERPANTS WARBLER

WFOR : “A Cuban man was arrested after U.S. Customs and Border Protection officers discovered 10 live songbirds inside his underwear at Miami International Airport (MIA), according to federal documents. Alberto Hernandez Castillo , who the report said is a permanent legal resident of the U.S., was taken into custody on Oct. 4 after arriving on World Atlantic Flight 503 from Havana. … That search revealed that Hernandez Castillo had hidden six plastic tubes, wrapped in tape, with black mesh attached over the openings, inside black pockets sewn into his underwear. … Both bird species are commonly smuggled into the U.S. and sold illegally for the pet trade or for singing competitions. When the birds were uncovered, Hernandez Castillo told officers the wildlife was for his ‘personal use.’ … Federal prosecutors recommended a $25,000 bond for Hernandez Castillo’s release pending trial, but it is unknown when his court hearing will be.”