Fewer than half of California voters back billionaire tax: Poll

California’s state ballot measure proposing a 5 percent tax on the state’s 200 billionaires’ net worth is losing support, according to a new poll released Monday.

The University of California, Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research-POLITICO poll found that 45 percent of registered California voters support the ballot measure Proposition 40, known as the Billionaire Tax Act. The measure faces opposition from 43 percent of voters, and 12 percent say they are undecided.

This is a drop from the previous UC Berkeley-Politico poll in February , where 50 percent of Californians supported Proposition 40 and 28 percent were opposed.

“The trend in Prop 40 is certainly going against Prop 40,” Jack Citrin, a UC Berkeley political science professor and co-director of the poll, told Politico . “From a historical point of view, you’d think the no side are gaining and would potentially win.”

But among likely voters who are undecided, 65 percent say they are more likely to lean toward voting for the measure compared to 15 percent who say they will not vote for it.

Pollsters also found that 83 percent of likely voters have heard some or a great deal about the measure, a notable statistic given that opponents of the measure released their first ad against Proposition 40 last month.

Sixty-four percent say they are not confident that the measure would be a one-time tax and would not be expanded, and 36 percent say they are confident that it would be. Democrats largely favor the measure, with 66 percent saying they support it, and 44 percent of likely Democratic voters saying billionaires do more harm than good.

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has been one of the measure’s biggest opponents, along with Google co-founder Sergey Brin, who has contributed over $100 million to PACs that are also against Proposition 40. Newsom has instead urged that a national billionaire tax on the wealthiest Americans be passed.

The ballot measure has received support from unions in various industries. The Service Employees International Union United Healthcare Workers West (SEIU-UHW), one of the measure’s most prominent backers, has said the tax will funnel money back into the state toward healthcare programs meant for middle-class and low-income Californians.

The measure is also backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who championed it during a rally in downtown Los Angeles earlier this year, and other progressive lawmakers like Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.).

The California Democratic Party announced its support for the ballot measure last month after a narrow vote. SEIU-UHW President Dave Regan said the endorsement “puts to rest the idea that California Democrats are not united by the billionaire tax –– they are.”

The Politico survey was conducted Sept. 8-14 and included 2,418 respondents. The margin of error is 2.7 percentage points.