El-Sayed holds slight lead over Rogers in new AARP poll

Progressive Abdul El-Sayed narrowly leads former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) in the race to succeed retiring Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D), according to a new poll.

An AARP poll released Thursday , which was commissioned by pollsters Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, found El-Sayed led Rogers 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, with 5 percent undecided.

The survey had a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points, making the two candidates effectively tied.

The polling showed Rogers had a higher amount of enthusiasm within his party — 96 percent — compared with the 91 percent of Democrats who support the former Wayne County health director. Notably, El-Sayed held a 6-point lead over Rogers among independents.

El-Sayed performed better with voters aged 18 to 49 years by 14 points, women by 12 points and Black voters by 41 points. Meanwhile, Rogers outperformed his opponent among voters older than 50 years by 9 points, voters older than 65 years by 13 points, men by 12 points and men older than 50 years by 21 points.

Rogers also held a 5-point advantage over El-Sayed among white voters.

El-Sayed and Rogers are duking it out for the battleground Senate seat, which Republicans view as one of their best pickup opportunities this fall.

Republicans viewed El-Sayed as the weaker Democrat in the primary against moderate Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) given his progressive stances on taxing billionaires and corporations, health care and the war in Gaza.

At the same time, Rogers has already lost a Michigan Senate race. In 2024, now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) defeated him. Republicans must also navigate a fraught midterm landscape and Trump’s underwater approval ratings.

A polling average of Michigan Senate general election surveys compiled by Decision Desk HQ shows El-Sayed narrowly leading Rogers 44 percent to 42 percent.

The AARP poll was conducted Aug. 9-11 with 877 likely voters surveyed statewide.