Cook Political Report shifts Kansas, South Carolina Senate races toward Democrats

The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report on Wednesday shifted the Senate races in Kansas and South Carolina toward Democrats, with just over a month before the November midterm elections.

Kansas shifted from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” for Sen. Roger Marshall’s (R-Kan.) race to keep his seat against Senate Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton. South Carolina moved from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” in the race between Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) and Democrat Annie Andrews.

Cook Political Report described how agriculture is the driving force in the Kansas Senate race, specifically over high fuel and fertilizer prices, as well as trade on beef . These increased costs have made the race more competitive.

The other factor is President Trump declaring earlier this month that he will stop purchasing planes from the aerospace company Canadian Bombardier, which has a plant in Wichita, Kans., and is a major employer in the state.

“Some private GOP polling has Marshall with more of an advantage than public polls and some private Democratic surveys that show a dead heat,” Cook editor Jessica Taylor wrote in her update.

Taylor noted that GOP sources have said, “there are weak spots” for Marshall “that will require shoring up for this “increasingly worrisome contest for the GOP that should be competitive at this juncture, though one where Republicans still have the edge.”

Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), The Hill’s partner, projects Marshall has a 79 percent probability of winning against Hamilton, who has a 21 percent chance of winning the Senate seat. Recent polling from The Hill/Emerson College showed Hamilton with a 2-point lead over Marshall, 45-43.

In South Carolina, Taylor looked at Graham’s uneven debate performances and noted how she could “face backlash for being elevated to the job purely because of her family name.” The newly minted incumbent replaced her brother, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), after his sudden death in July.

Graham’s competitor in the GOP Senate primary, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), did not immediately “issue a quick and full-throated endorsement after the contest,” Taylor wrote.

There is also a conservative grassroots campaign to have voters write in Norman’s name on the November ballot, “though sources close to Graham dismiss its impact as minuscule,” the report reads.

Andrews remains mired in the mid-40s in the polls, but help could come from the $2.5 million ad campaign launched by the Democratic group Fresh Start South Carolina. Taylor reported that she is “running a real race” and this help could make it “a truly competitive contest.”

“However, some in-state Republicans express enough angst about Graham’s soft numbers and fears of low turnout that it moves from Solid to Likely Republican,” the editor added.

DDHQ also gives Graham the edge in this race. Its forecast projects the Republican has a 74 percent chance of keeping the Senate seat, compared to Andrews’s 26 percent probability.

Cook Political Report overall sees Democrats picking up one to five seats in the Senate, but Taylor noted that there is a “very blue environment forming,” but it remains to be seen if Democrats can turn this “national wave into a Senate sweep.”