We are sliding toward war — and not the one we’re already in

Wars are measured not only by what they cost today, but by the risks they leave behind.

Eighteen American service members have been killed and 790 wounded in President Trump’s illegal and unconstitutional war with Iran. Military families have been forever changed, and the Pentagon estimates major war costs will reach $37.5 billion by the end of this fiscal year . More than six months after President Trump began a war he suggested would be short, the United States and Iran are still trading major strikes , with no diplomatic end in sight.

Fighting around the Strait of Hormuz has driven up energy, shipping and food costs. Every day President Trump fails to secure a diplomatic end to this war, those costs will continue to mount.

But the greater danger is what this war is doing to American deterrence.

Eight decades ago, military strategist Bernard Brodie wrote , “Thus far the chief purpose of our military establishment has been to win wars. From now on its chief purpose must be to avert them.”

Americans understandably want to stay out of wars. The best way to do that is to maintain the capability and resolve that convince our adversaries aggression will fail. President Trump’s war with Iran is weakening that deterrence by consuming many of the weapons the United States needs to deter aggression by the Chinese Communist Party.

Defense planners call these stockpiles our “magazine depth,” and we are draining them faster than we can rebuild them.

The United States has reportedly burned through almost half of its global supply of Tomahawk cruise missiles and used “ virtually all” of its Army Tactical Missile Systems and Precision Strike Missiles . By mid-July, U.S. forces had also fired roughly 1,700 Patriot and more than 200 THAAD interceptors .

Those numbers matter because a conflict with China would consume enormous quantities of the same weapons. In simulations conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, U.S. forces generally expended 5,000 long-range missiles in just four weeks of conflict with China .

The Pentagon is racing to increase production, signing seven-year agreements intended to triple Patriot PAC-3 MSE production capacity and quadruple THAAD production capacity.

That’s necessary. But seven-year agreements will not refill our magazines tomorrow. Funding can move quickly. Production cannot.

During my recent visit to Ukraine, I saw how Ukrainians have adapted to missile and drone warfare, electronic warfare, and the challenge of sustaining weapons production under attack. We should learn from their experience and expand weapons co-production with Ukraine and our allies to help rebuild the industrial capacity and stockpiles we need.

Our own military leaders are warning that time matters. Senior commanders have reportedly warned that prolonging large-scale operations against Iran is unsustainable and risks weakening America’s ability to confront threats elsewhere.

The consequences are already visible in the Indo-Pacific. More than 30 ships that were supposed to be in the Pacific have been sent to the Middle East , while missile-defense capabilities have also been drawn from the region and allies face possible delays in American weapons deliveries.

This is what Xi Jinping and the People’s Liberation Army are watching.

Former CIA Director William Burns said Xi directed the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to conduct a successful invasion of Taiwan by 2027 , while stressing that readiness does not mean Xi has decided to invade. Beijing can see how quickly the U.S. is exhausting critical weapons, how slowly we can replace them, and how an open-ended war in the Middle East is pulling military resources away from the Indo-Pacific.

CSIS has warned that depleted missile inventories have created a “ window of vulnerability ” for a potential Western Pacific conflict.

None of this means Xi will invade Taiwan tomorrow. That misses the point of deterrence. The danger begins when Beijing concludes that the U.S. lacks the weapons, industrial capacity, or staying power to make aggression prohibitively costly. That could make China more willing to intensify coercion, blockade or quarantine Taiwan, or test American commitments elsewhere in the region.

We must rapidly rebuild America’s magazine depth, expand weapons production and co-production with our allies, and restore the military readiness needed to deter the Chinese Communist Party.

And we must stop draining critical weapons, forces, and strategic focus into an open-ended war with Iran that is weakening our ability to prevent a far more dangerous conflict in the Pacific.

America’s objective is not to fight a war with China. It is to prevent one. That requires preserving the military capability, magazine depth, alliances, and demonstrated resolve that convince Beijing aggression will fail.

The great lesson of the past century is that the true measure of American military strength is its ability to prevent wars before they begin. Its greatest triumphs are the wars the world will never have to endure.

Raja Krishnamoorthi represents the 8th Congressional District of Illinois in the U.S. House of Representatives and is a senior member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.