Vance takes GOP hits as DeSantis, Cruz emerge as early GOP winners for 2028

The fight for the 2028 Republican primary is beginning to take shape on the heels of the GOP's devastating midterm losses, with Vice President Vance facing criticism for blaming the losses on the Iran war and other big-name Republicans appearing to stake out their own positions.

The losses have created a huge opening for GOP White House hopefuls, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas), to go against Vance.

It's a fact seemingly recognized by Vance, who was quick to blame the Iran war for the historic drubbings, and Republicans at large.

"The election results were bad news for every leader across the party, given the scale of the losses, but they were particularly tough for Vance's 2028 prospects," said Kevin Madden, the veteran Republican strategist who served as a senior adviser on Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign.

"Vance is now in the position of serving as a loyal vice president to a lame-duck president whose approval rating is in the 30's and whose influence on the future of the party could be in question," Madden added.

Vance has long been seen as the front-runner to succeed President Trump as the GOP standard-bearer. A close second has been Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

But questions are now being raised by Republicans over whether a candidate not directly tied to the administration would be stronger.

"Tuesday made clear that the stink on Vice President Vance and Secretary [Marco] Rubio may be too much to overcome as the election was a referendum on the job they are doing," said one top GOP operative who has spoken to DeSantis.

"This certainly creates a lane for DeSantis, Cruz and others if they are willing to run in a potentially impossible year to win," the operative added.

In blaming the losses on Iran, Vance put some daylight between himself and his boss. Trump, for his part, has doubled down in insisting his administration made the right decision to start the war.

"Vance's profile as a candidate is directly tied to the Trump legacy. A candidate for 2028 without an ability to craft a more unique, independent profile of their own will face challenges in this next two-year cycle," Madden predicted.

The GOP operative who spoke to The Hill said 2028 "is going to be a difficult year for Republican presidential contenders if there aren't substantial changes."

If there aren't changes, the operative said DeSantis might wait until 2032 to run for president.

DeSantis over the last 48 hours or so has certainly sounded like someone with the White House on his mind.

The Florida governor, who unsuccessfully challenged Trump for the Republican nomination in 2024, was among the first this week to offer his own pointed view on what went wrong for GOP candidates, pointing to the war in Iran and high gas prices.

In an interview with SiriusXM host Stephen A. Smith, he accused some in his party of "gaslighting" voters by not acknowledging their economic anxiety.

DeSantis has also pointed out that the red wall in Florida, where the GOP won a Senate race and a gubernatorial contest, held. That's an argument that would seem to point toward his leadership of the state.

Republicans did lose three House races in districts that were redrawn to give GOP candidates an edge, and they are behind in a fourth. The gubernatorial and Senate races were also closer than expected. But DeSantis can certainly make an argument about his state being a GOP bastion.

Cruz ahead of the elections had been more transparent about his ambition to run for president, saying he would entertain the idea of a 2028 run after the midterms.

On his podcast, Cruz compared the losses to the drubbing Republicans took after Watergate, a comparison that would seem to at least raise the issue of corruption as being a factor in the GOP's terrible night.

He also criticized the Trump tariffs and the Iran war for raising costs.

"Food is too high. Gas is too high. Diesel is too high. Insurance is too high. Life is too high," he said.

GOP strategists predict that after Tuesday's results, their primary will be wide open.

"Vance is completely unacceptable to any Republican who can accurately assess the reasons for the pasting we received on Tuesday," one former Trump campaign aide said. "It not only opens the door for others, it should soundly shut the door for JD Vance."

Other Republicans say Tuesday's results force Vance to stake his claim early or face the consequences of a more crowded field.

"Vance needs to announce first with the president's endorsement," said Susan Del Percio, the veteran Republican strategist. "If he doesn't do it in January, it'll look like a sign of weakness and everyone will know the president isn't on board. And that's the million dollar question: Is he out of favor with the president?"

One former Trump aide — who asked for anonymity to offer a candid assessment — said that right now, there's "more space than less space" for other Republicans to enter the race.

"Let's face it, Cruz and DeSantis were the winners in our party the other night," the former aide said. "This is absolutely the beginning of the end of the Trump era."

The former aide added that Trump "is still going to be a potent force in the primary. If he endorses you, that's 30 percent right off the bat."

But the former aide predicted it would be difficult for Vance to keep his distance from Trump and that he would be pigeonholed to his stances.

"Imagine, he's going to have to answer to Trump's whim or rant of the day every day," the former aide said. "And he's not going to stand in stark contrast to the president because Trump will shred him.

"That's just not an enviable place," the former aide added.

Since the elections, Vance has been under scrutiny from both Republicans and Democrats. Former White House press secretary Ari Fleischer, who served under former President George W. Bush, took to social platform X to counter Vance's evaluation of the sweeping GOP losses.

"Please allow me to present a different perspective," Fleischer said. "The problem was not the Iran War. It was the cease fire. If you start a war, you need to win it and finish it - otherwise don't start it."

Democrats also pounced on Vance's remarks.

"For you to reduce it to a simple political calculation while we still have 50,000 troops in the Middle East, is one of the most crass, cynical things I've seen," Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), wrote Wednesday on X. "You and President Trump got us into this war without a clear objective and without regard for the will of the American people. It's cost us American lives and billions of dollars of American treasure with no end in sight."

On Thursday, as political pundits were saying it was the end of the Trump era, Republicans said Vance's political future remained murky at best.

"I think if you're Vance you gotta take the nomination and pray you get someone on the other side like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez," the first former Trump aide said, referring to the progressive representative from New York.

For now, Del Percio said, results aside, Vance "ultimately stands in the same place he did three weeks ago."

"He only exists at the whim of the president," she said. "And if Trump doesn't endorse, will Vance go without the president's endorsement? If he's forced to do that, he will break with Trump and it will get ugly."