Democrats hold 7-point lead on generic congressional ballot: NewsNation-DDHQ poll

Democrats are leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot by 7 points, according to a new poll — underscoring the Democrat-friendly environment three weeks out from Election Day.

An exclusive NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) poll, conducted by AI research platform TrueDot.ai and released on Tuesday, showed Democrats leading Republicans with 49 percent support to the GOP’s 42 percent on the generic congressional ballot, with a separate 8 percent of survey respondents undecided. NewsNation is owned by Nexstar, which also owns The Hill.

When respondents were asked which party has done more to earn their vote, regardless of whom they’re voting for, 46 percent said the Democratic Party while 40 percent said the GOP. Close to 7 percent said independents while 8 percent said none of the above.

The full results of the poll will be discussed on “Decision Desk 2026 Have Your Say: A NewsNation Town Hall” hosted by Chris Cuomo on Tuesday night on NewsNation.

Former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, broadcaster and commentator Stephen A. Smith and former Trump strategist Steve Bannon will discuss what they see in the numbers during the town hall.

Recent polling has shown Democrats holding a steady and significant edge on the congressional ballot, with forecasters and analysts expecting the party to take back the House in November.

Decision Desk HQ forecasts that Democrats have a 76 percent probability of winning back the House while Republicans have a 24 percent probability of holding the lower chamber.

“The big question is if the lead grows more,” said Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst at DDHQ.

“You’re basically out of time for much to change,” he added. “At this point, it is probably more just about engaging the voters in your party as best you can, and making some final cases to voters who might normally or might have in the past voted for your party, if you’re Republicans in particular, and then trying to make the case for why they should show up again.”

The NewsNation/DDHQ poll found President Trump with a 38 percent favorability rating, compared with a 60 percent unfavorable rating. Inflation (28 percent), jobs and the economy (20 percent) and immigration and the border (12 percent) ranked among what voters said are the most urgent issues facing the U.S.

Skelley said he was “very skeptical” that Trump’s recent deal with Russia to add 300,000 tons of diesel to the U.S. and global marketplace would move voters before November. The deal has also caused some bipartisan backlash.

“Americans don’t … necessarily have a very popular opinion of Russia, and so some may look askance at this move as well,” he added.

Observers say Democrats’ chances of taking back the Senate, where they need to flip four seats, is a toss-up as they contend with Republican-friendly states such as Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and Texas. Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 56 percent chance of flipping the Senate and Republicans a 44 percent chance.

The NewsNation/DDHQ poll was conducted by TrueDot.ai between Oct. 5 and Oct. 9 with 974 likely 2026 national voters. The margin of error for the full survey is 3.2 percentage points.