Democrats lead Republicans in Texas battleground House districts, new poll shows

Democratic candidates are leading their Republican opponents in three of Texas’s most competitive House races, according to a new poll released Wednesday.

The Barbara Jordan Public Policy and Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University conducted surveys among likely voters in the state’s 15th, 28th and 34th congressional districts.

All three districts are located in the southern region of Texas and have a majority of Latino residents .

In the state’s 34th District, which includes a large strip of the state’s coast, Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez had a 3-point advantage over his GOP opponent, Eric Flores. About 8 percent of survey respondents also said they were still undecided in this race, while 5 percent supported minority party candidates.

Bobby Pulido, the Democrat running in the state’s 15th District, had a 5-point advantage over incumbent Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R). Pulido received 50 percent support, compared with De La Cruz’s 45 percent in the survey. Another 5 percent of likely voters said they remained undecided.

In Texas’s 28th District, which occupies the largest area of the three districts in South Texas, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) posted 45 percent support compared with 34 percent for his Republican challenger Tano Tijerina. Name recognition likely factored into Cuellar’s advantage in the poll, with 40 percent of likely voters saying they did not know enough about Tijerina to have an opinion on him.

Additionally, 6 percent of respondents supported Green Party candidate Marlon Duran, and 15 percent said they were still undecided in the race, according to the survey.

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, rates the 15th District race as “Lean R,” the 28th District as “Lean D” and the 34th District as a “toss up.”

All three districts will be critical as both parties vie for control of the U.S. House this November. Republicans hold a 6-seat advantage in the lower chamber of Congress.

More than half of likely voters surveyed in the latest poll expressed a negative view of President Trump’s job performance. Additionally, Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico enjoyed an advantage over his Republican opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, in each of these three districts.

The Texas Southern University poll was conducted from Aug. 18-22 among 700 likely voters in both the 15th and 34th districts, with a margin of error of approximately 3.7 percentage points.

The pollsters also surveyed 600 likely voters in the 28th District, with a margin of error of approximately 4 percentage points among the group.