Democrat Don Leonard flips GOP-held Ohio House seat

Democrat Don Leonard is projected to win Ohio’s 15th District, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).

Leonard defeated incumbent Rep. Mike Carey (R-Ohio), delivering Democrats a pickup in a district Republicans have held for more than a decade.

DDHQ projected that Leonard beat Carey by almost 8 percentage points with 91 percent of ballots cast at 10:37 p.m. EST.

The result marks a political breakthrough for Leonard, an Ohio State University professor who entered the race hoping to turn voter frustration over the cost of living into support for his first congressional bid.

It also brings an end to Carey’s five years in Washington.

The Republican, a former coal lobbyist, first won the seat in a 2021 special election with President Trump’s backing. He went on to win reelection twice, most recently defeating his Democratic challenger by roughly 13 percentage points in 2024.

But Democrats saw an opportunity in the Columbus-area district as they worked to expand the House battlefield beyond traditional swing seats.

Leonard made affordability and access to healthcare central to his campaign, frequently pointing to his upbringing in a financially struggling family.

The Democrat also brought an unconventional resume to the race. Before becoming a professor of city and regional planning at Ohio State University, Leonard served in the Peace Corps in South America and earned a doctorate in government from Cornell University.

Carey campaigned on his experience in Congress, including his work on the House Ways and Means Committee, and his support for Trump’s policies.

Leonard won the Democratic nomination in May, defeating former state Rep. Adam Miller.

DHHQ rated the district “likely Republican” heading into Election Day.