Collins leads Maine Senate race by 3 points: Survey

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) leads Democrat Troy Jackson by 3 points in her bid for a sixth term, according to a new poll.

The New York Times/Siena University survey found Collins leading Jackson, the former president of the Maine Senate, with 49 percent support to the Democrat’s 46 percent.

The incumbent’s edge was within the roughly 5 point margin of error, while another 5 percent of the 619 respondents were undecided, the results show.

Jackson led Collins by 9 points among women, 18 points among respondents aged 30-44 and by 34 points among Hispanics in the survey. Men, respondents aged 45-64, white and Black respondents backed the incumbent over the Democratic hopeful by 16, 19, 6 and 18 points, respectively.

As of Wednesday, Decision Desk HQ gave Jackson a 54 percent chance to win the race, which is crucial for Democrats’ chances of retaking the upper chamber of Congress. The party needs to flip a net of four seats for a majority in the Senate.

Jackson replaced Graham Platner on the ballot in July , after the oyster farmer dropped out of the race amid allegations of sexual assault — which he denied.

A progressive who lost the Democratic gubernatorial primary in June to former Maine House Speaker Hannah Pingree, Jackson has campaigned on “Medicare for All,” abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement and raising taxes on billionaires and corporations.

He has also aligned Collins with President Trump, who lost Maine in all three of his presidential campaigns. But the GOP senator broke with the president multiple times over the summer, criticizing his tariff war with Canada and voting against Attorney General Todd Blanche’s confirmation.

Collins, along with Maine Sen. Angus King (I), who caucuses with Democrats, also urged the Senate Commerce Committee last week to take up House-passed legislation that would extend a pause on whaling regulations.

Maine lobster industry leaders have championed the bill , which is titled the Northeast Lobstermen Protection Act and sponsored by outgoing Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) in the lower chamber.

The Times/Siena poll was conducted from Sept. 15-22 in collaboration with the Portland Press Herald and was sponsored in part by the Maine Trust for Local News.