Talarico turns Texas blue in historic win for Democrats

Democrat James Talarico is projected to win a Senate seat in Texas, defeating Republican Ken Paxton and delivering his party its first big Lone Star state win in decades, according to a projection by Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).

It’s a huge moment for Democrats, both because it finally notches the party a big victory in a state key to presidential elections and because it edges them closer to winning a Senate majority.

The party needs to net four seats to take back the majority, and at the beginning of the year, a win in Texas seemed like a long shot.

It is also a huge blow to Republicans in general, and specifically to President Trump, who endorsed controversial Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in a contentious GOP primary runoff.

Many Republicans saw Cornyn as the much safer pick and will believe that in endorsing Paxton, who easily defeated Cornyn in a primary after the endorsement, the president helped deliver a historic victory to Democrats.

Talarico, the 37-year-old state lawmaker, was seen as Democrats’ best chance in years to break through the GOP’s domination of statewide seats.

Talarico’s measured bid focused on a unity message, leaning into his faith and experience as a Presbyterian seminarian and former public school teacher. He was one of the Democratic state legislators who fled Texas last year in a bid to stall GOP-friendly redistricting and drew comparisons to Democrat Beto O’Rourke, who came within a few points of ousting Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in 2018.

Ahead of Election Day, the Democrat narrowly led in DDHQ’s polling averages, and forecasts signaled he was slightly favored to pull i off after raising a staggering $64 million in the third quarter of the year, compared to Paxton’s $18 million .

But a number of Democrats, who had seen previous efforts to win in Texas fall short, were not ready to believe their party could win the Senate seat until actually seeing it.

Paxton was a controversial Senate pick because of a long history of scandals. As the state’s top attorney, he faced criticism of politicizing the office and an unsuccessful 2023 impeachment on corruption charges. His wife of nearly four decades filed for divorce last year on “biblical grounds.”

As he struggled to gain on Talarico in polls ahead of the election, Paxton was a focal point during the Republican National Committee’s first-ever midterm convention in Dallas but later said that the convention “dropped our numbers,” according to audio leaked by The New York Times in September.

Trump, whose own approval rating has been dragged down by frustration over the economy and the war in Iran, offered a somewhat reticent pitch for Paxton during his campaign trail speeches, saying that Paxton was “a pain in the a‑‑” and “a little controversial,” even as he called on Texans to vote for the Republican.

Meanwhile, Republicans worked to paint Talarico as too progressive , pointing to controversial past remarks that the Democrat has since sought to clarify.

But it wasn’t enough to hold on to the seat that Cornyn easily won each cycle since 2002 .

The rivals never faced off on a debate stage, though Talarico and Trump both called for one.

The Texas contest was one of the most expensive of the cycle. Trump’s MAGA Inc. dropped $10 million into the race in early September, and tech mogul Elon Musk poured $158 million into a key super PAC backing Paxton, according to filings ahead of the election.

Talarico accused Musk in October of trying to “ buy his own personal U.S. senator. ”

The Democrat, though, won with some notable support from GOP figures who could not bring themselves to cast a ballot for Paxton, including former President George W. Bush’s brother, Neil, and personal injury lawyer Thomas J. Henry , a former Paxton donor.