Bitter Oklahoma governor’s runoff tests Trump’s endorsement power

President Trump faces one of the last major primary tests of his endorsement power on Tuesday in Oklahoma, where his pick for governor is battling in a tough runoff.

His pick, Republican Mike Mazzei, finished less than a percentage point behind rival Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond (R) in the initial June GOP primary, as a divided field kept either from winning outright.

As the runoff approaches, Trump has doubled down against Drummond in hopes that Mazzei, a former state senator and state budget secretary, can make it over the finish line in the red state, where the primary winner is all but assured to win the governor’s mansion this fall.

Along with the special runoff for Senate in South Carolina the same day, Oklahoma marks one of the final midterm primary gauges of the president’s political power amid his lackluster approval numbers — and it comes after five of his gubernatorial picks in open primaries lost so far this cycle.

“This is a classic test,” said Seth McKee, a political science professor at Oklahoma State University. “Because this endorsement is doing the heavy lifting in this race.”

Trump’s decision to back Mazzei came as a surprise to some, after signs that Drummond and other Republicans were poised to be front-runners for the seat being vacated by term-limited Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), teeing up the first wide-open Republican primary since 2018.

“It’s really this test of: Can a Trump endorsement get a dud over the finish line?” McKee said.

“I think we were all a little bit shocked when we saw that Trump endorsed Mazzei on this one. That moved him clearly into front-runner status, and it happened at a time when the other campaigns were attacking each other, and not really Mazzei,” said Tyler Powell, an Oklahoma-based political adviser who is not involved in the gubernatorial race. “So Mazzei kind of came in slightly unscathed into the race with the momentum.”

Since then, Mazzei’s “been purely relying on the Trump endorsement” as his pitch to voters, Powell argued, “and I think Oklahoma voters were getting turned off.”

Trump’s endorsement had already drawn scrutiny after revelations that Mazzei’s campaign paid nearly $70,000 to Trump confidante Roger Stone for consulting services, prompting critics to question whether the money factored into Trump’s decision.

Mazzei has pushed back against those claims, and his campaign has stressed that it was his staunch alignment with Trump that got him the nod.

But Trump’s support , which came just two weeks before the initial June primary, wasn’t enough to lock up the nomination. Against more than half a dozen other rivals, Mazzei finished a hair behind Drummond. The pair each notched roughly a quarter of the vote.

“Drummond had been the front-runner for quite some time, and so I think that’s really why Mazzei’s in the position he is, is because the Trump endorsement elevated him,” said Oklahoma Republican strategist and pollster Pat McFerron.

But Trump isn’t just backing Mazzei — he’s warning Oklahoma Republicans off Drummond, who has drawn the president’s ire over his resistance to a planned aluminum smelter in Oklahoma.

As the Sooner State’s attorney general, Drummond filed a lawsuit to block the plant, a Trump-backed project that would be the largest facility of its kind in the country. Opponents argue that the proposal threatens local residents and lands and would give too much control to the Dubai-based Emirates Global Aluminum.

Mazzei once criticized the plan , according to Oklahoma Watch, but has since championed it.

Trump has also suggested that Drummond was not supportive enough during his impeachments, and he accused the gubernatorial hopeful of having donated to former President Biden and the anti-Trump Lincoln Project. Drummond’s campaign has explained that the donations were made in his wife’s name, according to The Frontier’s reporting .

“I respect President Trump and the work he is doing for our country, but we are not going to agree on every issue. I am a conservative Republican, and I believe part of leadership is having the courage to stand your ground when it is in the best interest of the people you serve,” Drummond said in a statement shared with The Hill.

“On the aluminum smelter, the President and I simply disagree. My responsibility as Attorney General is to protect Oklahoma’s land, water and people, and that is exactly what I will continue to do,” Drummond said.

Meanwhile, the run-up to the runoff has been a bitter back-and-forth between the Republican rivals. Mazzei released a drug test this week after public pressure from Drummond, who did the same. The test was negative, according to the Oklahoma Voice , though Drummond accused his rival of attempting to mislead voters by only completing one type of test.

The Hill has also reached out to Mazzei’s campaign for comment.

Trump’s endorsement is a major get for Republican candidates, especially in a red stronghold like Oklahoma.

The Sooner State went to Trump by more than 30 percentage points in each of his three presidential elections, and Republicans dominate the House and Senate delegations. The governor’s mansion has had some more variation — though the last Democrat was elected in 2006 when then-Gov. Brad Henry (D) won reelection in a landslide.

But Trump’s approval numbers have ticked down slightly in the state, as well as nationally.

A survey from McFerron’s firm found that Trump was “still very strong” among Oklahoma Republicans but appeared “clearly damaged” by his support for the aluminum smelter — as well as by his now-rescinded endorsement of Jackson Lahmeyer, a Tulsa pastor who withdrew from a House runoff amid a texting scandal this year.

The survey also found that just 38 percent of Oklahoma Republicans identify themselves as “Trump Republicans,” while a 56-percent majority prefer the label of “Traditional Republican.”

McKee suggested that breakdown “really speaks to the short-term environment” as the president’s popularity dips.

“If that poll is representative, then it would make sense to say Drummond might be the one who finishes first, because clearly there’s more people who say they’re traditional, and obviously, more of those people are voting for Drummond than Maisie,” McKee added.

Sparse polling has signaled the runoff a dead heat . Prediction markets currently favor Mazzei.

And Oklahoma isn’t the only test for Trump on Tuesday as the primary calendar enters its home stretch.

Over in South Carolina, he’s endorsed Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) — who was appointed to fill her late brother Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-S.C.) Senate vacancy — against Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) in a special primary runoff for a full term in the seat.

The president has boasted a strong endorsement scorecard throughout the cycle, but his picks have fallen notably short in five gubernatorial primaries in recent months.

Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, Iowa Rep. Randy Feenstra, Wyoming Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder and Minnesota businessman Mike Lindell all lost out in their GOP primaries . After his initial pick for South Carolina governor, Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette (R), fell into a runoff, he issued a double endorsement for her rival Alan Wilson, who went on to win .

“When it comes to federal offices, the Trump endorsement is very, very valuable. … I think it also makes a big difference in down ballot races on a state level where there’s not a lot of information,” McFerron said, pointing to Trump’s field-clearing endorsement of Rep. Kevin Hern (R) for Oklahoma’s Senate opening.

But the governor’s mansion is “a different issue,” he argued.

“For governor, I think it’s a different issue in that I think voters in states want to have a more personal connection with the governor, and I think anybody’s endorsement means less in a gubernatorial contest than it does in others.”