Republicans wanted to run against Mamdani. They're running against Hochul instead.

NEW YORK — Not too long ago, Republicans were salivating at the thought of using New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani as a far-left boogeyman. Instead, moderate Gov. Kathy Hochul has emerged as the GOP's go-to foil.

As Hochul runs for a second term, Republicans are hoping her middling popularity will be a drag on Democrats in competitive down-ballot races. Some Democratic candidates, meanwhile, are keeping her at arm's length — a sign they recognize the downside of appearing with a governor often linked to Albany's reputation for high taxes and lax criminal justice laws.

"There's not a Democrat in the party in a swing district who wants to be near her," said a state Democratic official, granted anonymity to speak candidly. "Her numbers aren't as bad as four years ago, but they're certainly not good."

The current state of play is one neither party fully planned for. Mamdani, a 34-year-old democratic socialist who campaigned on freezing rents and taxing the rich, was supposed to be the Democrat who repelled suburban and upstate voters. Hochul has spent four years trying to be the Democrat who repels no one. Yet outside the city, the socialist is a curiosity and the governor a grievance.

After less than a year in office, Mamdani has amassed high favorability ratings in New York City and a positive perception nationally , while the suburbs ringing the city remain cooler on him. Hochul is being invoked far more broadly. Since casting Mamdani as a socialist neophyte carries less weight farther outside the city, Republicans have fixed their sights more squarely on her as the prime personification of the state's leftward lurch.

New York, home to a handful of swing districts expected to determine control of the House, remains a high priority for both parties. And the top-of-ticket race between Hochul and Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman stands to impact voter turnout in races beyond their own.

"Outside of the New York City media market, Mamdani doesn't have the same impact," said Marc Molinaro, a former House lawmaker and ex-Trump administration official who's now running for the state Assembly. "Most people further north just don't have a relationship with the city. They may not love the city, they may not have an attachment to the city, but who do they see? They see the governor."

On suburban Long Island, former state Assemblymember Mike LiPetri used his first television advertisement of the general election to decry "career politicians like Kathy Hochul and Tom Suozzi who sold us out and left us behind." The opening screed in Rep. Nick LaLota's TV spot is that "Kathy Hochul's taxes are the worst in the nation." And GOP candidate Anthony Constantino, running to succeed Rep. Elise Stefanik in a blood red upstate district, has accused his Democratic foe Blake Gendebien of being "beaten into submission" by the governor after he pulled a TV ad pledging to stand up to her .

In a statement, Hochul spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki said: "No amount of GOP spin changes the fact that New York Republicans gutted Medicaid, ripped food assistance from families and kids, and enabled Donald Trump, a historically unpopular president, as he tried to defund the NYPD and raised costs on everything from gas to groceries – while Governor Hochul put money back in New Yorkers' pockets, passed free school meals, and stood up to Trump at every turn. Voters across this state see all of that, and they're going to send Republicans a message in less than 50 days."

Republicans are facing a tough midterm election with an unpopular president in the White House. They are trying to weather a political dynamic featuring widespread voter angst over costs, with high interest rates and spiking gas prices emerging as resonant plotlines in the Empire State. Losses in purplish and even red areas of New York would go a long way to costing Republicans the House.

Making Hochul the face of a Democratic Party framed around taxes and crime is meant to counter an otherwise bleak Republican environment and President Donald Trump's unpopularity here.

But Democrats are casting doubt on how effective such messaging will be — especially compared to the GOP candidates' association with Trump.

"I don't think it's anywhere near as potent as the president of the United States," said consultant David Carlucci. "It is just a lash out as really one of the few options they have in terms of just playing the blame game."

Meanwhile, Democrats are trying to thread a delicate needle as the governor seeks a second full term. Some are attempting to separate themselves from Hochul — a dance made all the more awkward as she marshals the resources of the New York Democratic Committee to aid down-ballot candidates.

In the North Country, Gendebien told supporters recently that Hochul is "unpopular" and "underwater" in the district he's seeking to represent. According to a recording of a Sept. 3 town hall that was obtained by POLITICO , he also acknowledged that he didn't know why.

Even in races where a high-profile surrogate could be a welcome boost to a relative unknown, the desire for the governor to stump isn't necessarily strong. When asked if Hochul would be helpful on the trail for him, Mike DeCillis, a long shot Democrat challenging Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, replied: "Probably not."

The district, a red-leaning seat that covers all of Staten Island and part of Brooklyn, is a "fickle pickle," he said. "It's not because of any specific policy. It's the person they have been kind of trained and told that this is the person they shouldn't like at all costs."

Hochul's zealous push for House Democrats — a years-long project launched after former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi blamed her weak showing in 2022 for losing down-ballot races — has further raised the stakes in a race that she's largely expected to win. In 2022, she won by only 6 points.

"We're going to be the state that sends Hakeem Jeffries to the speaker's office," Hochul said in an interview on NY1 , highlighting her investment into the state party. She expressed confidence in flipping districts held by Rep. Mike Lawler, Lalota and Stefanik, and holding those represented by Suozzi and Reps. Laura Gillen, Josh Riley, Pat Ryan and John Mannion.

It's unclear where exactly Hochul will stump for down-ballot candidates in the closing stretch of the election, though an aide said she will be supporting candidates up and down the ballot.

Republicans viewed Mamdani, of all people, to be their primary weapon in the suburbs and upstate, where voters tend to be moderate and more willing to back a Republican. But the mayor, who was viewed favorably by 69% of New York City voters in an August Siena Research Institute poll , has not been the beat-up toy many GOP candidates expected.

New York City mayors, who often bring left-leaning agendas into office, are typically viewed as easy targets for Republicans, especially in rural and suburban House districts. That strategy hasn't always been effective, in part, because few voters outside the five boroughs consider the city's mayor to be especially relevant.

"I've been asked many times, like, where does upstate and downstate start?" Republican state Sen. Peter Oberacker, who's challenging Democratic Rep. Josh Riley, said in an interview last month. "You could almost determine where that line is by the concern about Mamdani. … In the more northern reaches of our district, it's definitely a topic of discussion and concern. But as you come farther downstate, it gets a bit more intense."

When asked whether the governor or mayor comes up more in discussions with voters, he said the former — and pointed to Hochul allocating $4 billion to help the city's budget gap. "They feel this way that they're not getting represented," he said.

Riley doesn't view Hochul as much of an issue. He touted her work tackling a dearth of affordable child care. "I'm eager to continue working on that with her," he said in a statement.

In a state where Democrats hold all levers of power, Hochul is an obvious focal point for Republicans — the embodiment of a deep blue state's policies on taxes, crime and regulations that drive up utility bills.

She's tried to reverse that perception. She's backed measures to scale back a controversial cashless bail law and touted middle-income tax cuts and rebate checks. And she's embraced popular policies like expanding no-cost child care, banning cellphones in schools and a moratorium on data center construction.

But those policies are more popular than the governor herself.

The Siena survey found 49% of voters hold an unfavorable view of Hochul, with only 46% reporting a favorable opinion. Yet most voters back her efforts to curb Trump's aggressive deportation campaign and New York's data center construction pause, which Hochul rolled out this summer. The same poll found Hochul leading Blakeman by 10 points, with the largest chunk of her support coming from the city. She trailed Blakeman in the suburbs by 8 points, and they were nearly tied upstate.

Trump is even more unpopular with New York voters: Only 38% have a favorable view of him. He was slightly above water in the suburbs, but viewed unfavorably upstate and in NYC.

Despite those numbers, some Democratic candidates may not have much of a choice but to accept Hochul's help.

The governor is using the state Democratic Committee this year to aid down-ballot candidates, opening field offices and providing political infrastructure to support those running in crucial races. This coordinated campaign is a stark departure from prior years when the state party functioned solely as an arm of the governor's political operation.

The shift began in 2024 and is carrying over into this election year, as Democrats try to hold several seats on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley.

"She absolutely delivered in 2024 on this in a huge way," said Rep. Pat Ryan, whose seat is not seen as competitive as it was two years ago. "She campaigned a bunch of times for me in that race and across the Hudson Valley and I dramatically outperformed in large part because of a lot of the things that she did. That's only grown stronger now."

New York Democrats must win without relying solely on Hochul's coattails to carry them, though.

Distance themselves too far from the governor, and candidates run the risk of undermining the head of their party set on returning to Albany with a clear mandate for the next four years. Running too close with Hochul opens up swing seat candidates to Republican attacks that they're the lackeys of a chief executive with so-so polling.

Ryan's neighboring House member, Lawler, is viewed as one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country. Earlier this year, he rallied with Trump — not the most popular figure in the district — and said he'd welcome Hochul to campaign for his Democratic opponent Cait Conley "any day of the week."

In 2024, then-Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly carried the district, as Lawler won reelection.

With that past as prologue in mind, it remains unclear if Conley will appear with Hochul on the trail. But she's bringing in other reinforcements. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a potential 2028 presidential contender, campaigned with her in the district this week.

Conley has said outright that she does not want to campaign with Mamdani — a calculus that speaks to the independent-minded voters she needs to get on her side. Republicans have sought to tie them together in an attempt to portray her as too far to the left.

Lawler has repeatedly invoked both Mamdani and Hochul on the trail. At times, he's trained more of his ire at the governor than his actual opponent.

"Their numbers are very similar in the district, and for different reasons and in different ways, they are equally as offensive to most voters in the district," Lawler said of Hochul and Mamdani.

Still, Hochul's allies believe it's an error for Democratic candidates to disassociate themselves from the de facto head of the party. If she wins in November, she'll continue to wield substantial power.

"I've never felt that running away from the head of your ticket is a winning strategy for any party in any year," New York Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs said. "You make a mistake by distancing yourself from her where she can be helpful."