A Trump North Korea deal

President Trump ordered the reduction of ongoing U.S.-South Korea military exercises last week. He also wants to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un . These are the least surprising developments of Trump’s second term; the only real surprise is that it took this long.

In his first term, Trump used his unconventional approach to foreign policy to break the stalemate of more than 20 years of failed diplomacy with North Korea. His three predecessors (two Democrats and a Republican) basically pursued the same policy: sanctions, sanctions relief and incentives provided to the Kim family to forgo its nuclear weapons aspirations.

Former Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush negotiated different versions of the same deal with Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il, the grandfather and father of the current North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Those deals allowed Pyongyang to easily reverse constraints on its nuclear program if Kim wanted to pressure Washington or after a change in administrations.

Trump turned this approach on its head by executing a maximum pressure policy that strangled Kim’s economy and even forced China to close North Korea’s bank accounts , an unprecedented move. Trump also met directly with Kim Jong Un which rejected the Clinton, Bush and Obama approach of using China as a mediator and negotiating with lower-level North Korean officials. North Korea decision making is centralized in its leader, Trump cut out the middlemen to embrace that reality.

Unfortunately, Trump enters potential negotiations with Kim in a weaker position than in his first term. Former President Biden publicly condemned Pyongyang’s assistance to Russia for its war in Ukraine but did little to stop it or force Kim to choose between helping Russian President Vladimir Putin and his own strategic programs.

Trump could restore leverage against Kim by sanctioning North Koreans operating in China and Chinese companies and individuals who are aiding Pyongyang’s sanctions evasion. These actions would not disrupt Trump’s approach with Chinese leader Xi Jinping because they are similar to U.S. efforts targeting Chinese teapot refineries processing Iranian oil.

The president’s bold action to strike Iran’s threshold nuclear weapons program last year in the Midnight Hammer strikes and subsequent military strikes this year provides him additional flexibility. Negotiations with Kim will likely include at least a tacit acknowledgement of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. Tehran would have seen that as a green light to pursue its own nuclear weapons. But the Islamic Republic is in dire financial danger and there are questions on whether it can survive in the long term.

America’s allies and partners could see acceptance of North Korea’s nuclear weapons as a signal that a future administration would accept development of their own nuclear arsenals. But Washington retains incentives and disincentives to prevent those programs.

Negotiating a deal with North Korea will not be easy. While many see Pyongyang as a backwards Hermit Kingdom, they have over three decades of experience negotiating with the United States and have largely won those encounters.

In addition to Washington’s acceptance of North Korea’s nuclear program, Trump could offer a peace treaty formally ending the Korean War, a better political and economic relationship, and a permanent end to military exercises with South Korea. He could also facilitate future North Korea-South Korea negotiations.

Trump should insist on verifiable limits on Pyongyang’s long-range ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs. And any deal would need to include North Korea withdrawing all troops and military assistance for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

He would be able to add to his growing list of diplomatic achievements ending conflicts in his second term and weaken Putin in the process potentially leading to a negotiated settlement between Moscow and Kyiv. Trump could also eventually travel to North Korea or a neutral site to sign a deal with Kim which would be another made-for-TV moment in his presidency.

Trump will be criticized for this approach, but he should be commended for pursuing an achievable goal rather than pursuing the same negotiations strategy and expecting a different result.

Anthony Ruggiero is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. He was National Security Council director for North Korea and deputy assistant to President Trump and senior director for counterproliferation and biodefense.