Democrat leads Marshall in tight Kansas Senate race: Poll

Democrat Adam Hamilton narrowly leads Republican Gov. Roger Marshall in a tight race for Senate in red Kansas, according to new polling.

A new The Hill/Emerson College Polling survey found Hamilton ahead by 2 percentage points, with 45 percent to Marshall’s 43 percent. Another 4 percent chose Libertarian candidate David Graham, and 8 percent were undecided.

“This poll finds Democrats with their best chance to win their first Senate seat in Kansas since 1932, in part driven by Democrat Hamilton’s appeal to independent voters, leading by 15 points,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the race toward Democrats last month, from “solid” to “likely” Republican, citing Hamilton’s primary win as a promising sign for Democrats hoping to break “a nearly century-long Senate losing streak” in Kansas. Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) also considers the race likely Republican.

Hamilton, senior pastor of the Church of the Resurrection, is campaigning to become the first Democrat to win a Sunflower State Senate race since former Sen. George McGill in 1932. Marshall is vying for a second term after winning the seat by double-digits in 2020.

Former Republican Gov. Bill Graves (Kansas) backed Hamilton this week, saying the country is “facing increasing partisan gridlock and division” and that it’s “time Kansas does something different.”

Graham’s third-party candidacy “shakes up the Senate race in a way we do not see in the governor’s contest,” Kimball added, noting that the Libertarian’s supporters “break heavily” for the Republican contender in the governor’s race to replace term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly (D).

Democrat Cindy Holscher, a state senator backed by Kelly for the governor’s mansion, trailed behind Republican Ty Masterson, the state Senate president backed by President Trump, with 44 percent to Masterson’s 51 percent. Another 6 percent were undecided.

“Independents are splitting their ticket: in the race for Governor, they break for Masterson by two points, 47 percent to 45 percent,” Kimball noted.

Cook Political Report and DDHQ both consider the governor’s race to lean Republican.

In a potential signal of Democratic momentum in Kansas, which voted for Trump in each of his three elections, Vice President Vance stopped by and touted Kansas Republicans this week.

Friday’s survey was conducted Sept. 15-16 among 750 likely voters and had a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.