Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves nearly 3 dozen House races in Democrats favor

Nonpartisan election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball is moving 28 House races in Democrats’ direction with just two weeks until the midterms.

When adding up the seats Crystal Ball says are either safe, likely or leaning toward one party, the new projections put Democrats above the 218 needed for a House majority. In other words, Democrats could lose every race rated as “toss-up” and still win if Crystal Ball’s ratings prove accurate.

Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote in his analysis that it would be a “shock” if Democrats did not win a decently sized House majority.

“At this point not only would it be a shock if Republicans held the House, but it would also be a surprise if Democrats did not at least exceed the tiny-sized majorities of the last three Congresses,” Kondik wrote.

The forecaster, a division of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, moved six races from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican,” six from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican” and one race from “leans Republican” to “toss-up.”

It moved nine more races from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic” and six from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic.”

Among the most notable shifts are in Iowa, where Crystal Ball now rates three out of the state’s four House seats “leans Democratic.” Republicans currently hold all four of the Hawkeye State’s seats in the lower chamber.

Crystal Ball also moved two GOP-held seats in Arizona, the 1st and 6th Congressional Districts, to “leans Democratic.”

The forecaster also pushed some seats further into the Democrats’ column that their party already holds but are easier to flip following Republican mid-decade redistricting efforts.

That includes the open Texas 35th Congressional District , which Crystal Ball moved from “leans Republican” to “toss-up,” and Rep. Don Davis’s (D) bid to hold on in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, which went from a “toss-up” to “leans Democratic.”

Of the 15 seats Republicans recently redrew with more GOP-friendly lines, just three are rated “safe Republican.”

Kondik also identified a handful of races where Democrats could upset Republicans in districts not expected to be competitive.

Potential upsets include the reelection of bids of Reps. Victoria Spartz in Indiana’s 5th Congressional District, Mike Flood in Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District and Jeff Van Drew — a former Democrat who switched parties in 2020 — in New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District. All three of those are among the six races shifting from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican.”

“[Democratic] candidates just swamped Republicans in third quarter fundraising reports released late last week, blunting a GOP outside spending edge,” Kondik wrote. “Seemingly each day brings a new report of some new concern for Republicans in a race that wasn’t on the radar earlier in the cycle.”