In Ukraine, Putin is running out of time and options

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special military operation in Ukraine was supposed to succeed within a week or two. It has now dragged on for 1,659 days, and the Russian machine only has so much patience.

Last week The Economist suggested that Putin believes that ending the war short of success “would put him physically at risk.”

“They will hang me,” he is said to have confessed to cronies earlier in the war.

He is running out of time for winning, and out of options. But he does still have options.

His first option — the least intrusive — is to stay on the current path. He wants to persuade President Trump to force Ukraine into a peace deal on his terms — a deal that eliminates what he claims were the root causes for the war.

Last weekend, he hosted U.S. Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner in Moscow. The two were met on the tarmac by Putin’s economic envoy, Kirill Dmitriev. The same Dmitriev who pitched them a $14 trillion joint project in February, contingent upon a peace agreement in Ukraine and the lifting of Western sanctions.

But peace required Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to cede the Donbas to Russia, and Trump cannot deliver that.

On Tuesday, Putin spoke with Trump for an hour. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov described the conversation as constructive, and that Trump believed ending the war would open up “impressive and far-reaching” prospects for fully restoring relations between Washington and Moscow, and that “this would have a particular impact on trade and economic ties, promising enormous benefits for both countries.”

It is the same message eight months later. Economic deals are still on the table — hence Dmitriev’s presence at the airport.

Putin’s second option involves pressuring NATO and the European Union into withdrawing their support to Ukraine by threatening to expand the war beyond Ukraine’s border. The Kremlin is doing that now through a hybrid warfare campaign , demonstrations of military force, and threats to attack countries providing military support and technology transfers to Ukraine.

The 101st Missile Brigade , which is equipped with the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile system, was recently deployed to Belarus. The Kremlin threatened Germany with direct strikes on its military production facilities in Berlin, following German accusations that Moscow orchestrated an attempted explosive drone attack at Leipzig Airport last month.

The Russians have threatened British drone manufacturing facilities with a “semi-military response” over the transfer of missile blueprints to Ukraine. They also threaten to take unspecified “additional measures” in response to Norway’s expanding military presence along its northern border with Russia.

Although Putin may have convinced Trump that he has “ no hostile plans ” towards Europe, his actions suggest otherwise.

Option three — the most dangerous — would be to continue his failed summer offensive into the fall. He can then weaponize winter once again by attacking Ukraine’s critical infrastructure in an effort to put Ukrainian civilians in the cold.

Why is it the most dangerous? One reason is that the Kremlin is struggling to replace its battlefield losses and may be forced to mobilize as many as 600,000 soldiers after the State Duma elections later this month. They are waiting until after the election for a reason — the public may not take it well.

Putin’s generals are also 0 for 15 when it comes to securing the Donbas. The Kyiv Independent reports those same generals are trying to postpone their deadline from New Year’s Day to March 31, 2027. The Institute for the Study of War pushes the likelihood of that happening out to 2032, given “their current rate of advance — if they can seize it at all.”

Russian doctrine calls for mass in soldiers and artillery. More meat assaults are on the horizon. With Russian casualties now exceeding 1.5 million , 2 million casualties this time next year is a grim likelihood.

Putin’s last option — and the least likely — is to simply declare victory, stop bombing Ukraine and withdraw Russian forces back to their February 2022 border.

Team Trump needs to understand that when Putin says he wants peace, he means he wants the complete annihilation of Ukraine — the country, the language, the culture, and the resistance to his hegemony.

His terms remained the same after his meeting with Witkoff and Kushner — just repackaged. His demand for three days of cease-fire afforded Putin the opportunity to stockpile his ballistic missile inventory and strike Kyiv when the Washington suits departed.

Putin believes he is winning. That is what his generals are telling him — not because he is winning, but because providing him an accurate description of the battlefield would be hazardous to their health.

On Sunday, he repeated to reporters what his generals told him: Russian troops had captured Sviatohirsk in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. On Monday, the commander of Ukraine’s Third Army Corps recorded a video in downtown Sviatohirsk, directly refuting their reports.

Trump needs to come to grips with one fact: The only root cause of the war in Ukraine is Putin himself. The only reason this war continues is Putin. He is all-in, and he will escalate to achieve his desired end state, because the alternative is his own demise.

Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. They are the cofounders of INTREP360 and the INTREP360 Intelligence Report on Substack.