Trump plots a campaign blitz; GOP candidates face a decision

President Trump’s upcoming midterm campaign blitz is risking dragging down Republicans facing tough reelection bids as his approval rating plummets ahead of November.

Trump will head to battleground North Carolina to campaign with Senate nominee Michael Whatley on Wednesday in an effort to boost Republican efforts in the fight to keep the seat red.

The visit is slated to be the first of many for Trump, as Republicans seek to nationalize the midterm elections.

However, other Republican incumbents and candidates are choosing to keep Trump at arm’s length, as candidates figure out how the president factors into their own political calculus.

“I think he’s putting everyone in a very tricky situation. Do you stump with him and literally and figuratively embrace high gas prices and war in Iran, or do you snub him and risk him telling the base not to show up for you?” said one Democratic strategist.

“This week made clear he wants everyone to act as though he’s on the ballot and given his approval ratings that’s bad news for Republicans, even in traditionally red areas,” the strategist continued.

This past week’s Republican midterm convention served to provide a jolt of energy to the GOP base ahead of November. Republicans are facing historical headwinds going into the midterms, given the party in the White House normally loses seats in the House and the Senate during the first two years of an administration.

On top of that, recent polls show Trump’s approval rating continuing to decline. A recent Focaldata/Financial Times poll released showed Trump’s approval rating hitting a new low of 32 percent.

Despite those negative polls, Trump and the White House are imploring his base of supporters to “pretend” that he is on the ballot, arguing a Democratic majority will be a blow to the president’s agenda. Trump’s allies note that there are members of his political base only he can motivate to head to the polls.

Trump sought to galvanize the base during the two-day convention by vowing to give $5,000 to every U.S. adult if Republicans keep their majorities. He also led an unusual convention pledge meant to convince GOP voters to get out of the house and to the polls to vote in the midterms.

“You know what happens if you don’t vote? You go to hell,” the president told supporters. “You know that, OK? You go to hell, and I don’t want that to happen to you. So please go and vote, because together we will defeat the communists.”

Beyond Trump, Republicans also expect Vice President Vance to get out on the campaign trail. They might be looking more forward to that, pointing to his energetic speech at the convention Thursday evening.

“Vance has been and will continue to be another fantastic surrogate on the trail, especially in a place like Ohio where he remains the most popular person statewide. He’s able to reach voters where they’re at across the Midwest and beyond,” said one Republican operative.

While getting the base to turn out at higher levels than in past midterm elections could give Republicans a boost, Democrats argue the strategy of using Trump to turn out the base could backfire on swing voters unhappy with the direction the country is headed.

“I do think there’s value in reminding voters he promised to lower costs and keep us out of war. He’s done the opposite and they have a right to feel betrayed,” the Democratic strategist said.

Still, a lot of Republicans facing tough reelection bids are not showing any signs of shying away from the president.

Reps. Mike Lawler (N.Y.), Scott Perry (Pa.), Monica De La Cruz (Texas), Derrick Van Orden (Wis.), Ryan Mackenzie (Pa.), and Rob Bresnahan (Pa.) were among the House Republicans facing tough reelection bids who attended the party’s two-day convention in Dallas.

On the Senate side, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), and Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chair, were among the Senate candidates in competitive races who attended the convention.

“The energy behind the president and his policies was on full display at the Republican convention, and our candidates will be carrying that momentum and enthusiasm into their districts,” one GOP source told The Hill. “We’re going to put the president and his achievements on the ballot as much as possible and highlight what’s at stake in this election.”

One Republican strategist noted that the party ecosystem has not done enough over the past two years to promote the policy wins of the administration and congressional Republicans, including provisions seen inside the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, also known as the Working Families Tax Cuts.

“If I had a critique, people don’t know what’s been done,” the strategist said. “I don’t think the public relations has been maybe as aggressive or as effective as it should have been.”

“You look across districts and you have folks who work in service jobs where they rely on tips or they rely on overtime, where you have a senior population, or where you have families that are relying on the expanded child tax credit,” the strategist continued.

Lawler is one of eight Republicans to have one reelection in 2024 in a district carried by former Vice President Kamala Harris. While the Republican lawmaker has at times broken with the administration, most recently on comments Trump made about the Iran war , he has still embraced the president publicly.

Trump traveled to Lawler’s district in May to appear alongside the congressman in a campaign-style event. Lawler also spoke at this past week’s midterm convention, introducing the family of Sherida Gorman, a college student who was shot and killed in Chicago earlier this year, in an emotional tribute. The Trump administration has stated the man accused of killing Gorman, Jose Medina, of entering the U.S. “through the open door policy” of the Biden administration.

“I think that’s a great example of the real-life impact of policy,” the Republican strategist said. “We can talk about policies very esoterically from 30,000 feet, and I think what you see in that instance is the trickle down of bad policy into changing a family’s life.”

Other Republicans facing tough reelection bids made the decision not to attend the convention, including Reps. Tom Barrett (Mich.) and Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), Maine Sen. Susan Collins and Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan.

“It’s a case-by-case basis,” the Republican strategist said. “Whether or not you’re seen on the campaign trail with the president or whether you’re not seen with him or the administration, the other party is going to tie you to that administration.”

“You might as well get the benefit of it,” they added.