New polls have Democrats thinking big on Senate

Recent polling showing Democrats performing strongly in Senate battlegrounds and more reliably red states is fueling optimism that the party could clinch both chambers in November.

An AARP poll released Monday showed Democrat Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley by 11 percentage points in the North Carolina Senate race, while recent polls have shown Democrat James Talarico tied or leading Republican Ken Paxton in Texas.

Republicans have a few opportunities to expand their own map in Michigan, New Hampshire and potentially Minnesota. But the Senate is clearly in play for Democrats — which analysts like Charlie Cook note seemed almost impossible a year ago “but now it’s very realistic.”

“I don’t feel good about the election as a Republican,” said Brian Darling, a former top aide to Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.). “I think it’s going to be a bad day.”

Most election forecasters and analysts expect Democrats to win back the House in November by varying margins, while a handful now predict a rosier environment for the upper chamber.

Inside Elections and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) suggest Democrats could very well flip the Senate, which would require picking up at least four seats. Inside Elections projects Democrats will take between two and four seats in the Senate while DDHQ forecasts that the party has a 54 percent chance of winning the upper chamber.

Cook, the founder of the nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report, suggested in a weekend interview with ABC News’s “This Week” that Democrats could pick up 20 seats in the House and between four and five in the Senate.

“I would completely agree that the House has been kind of a done deal for a good while,” Cook said. “But the Senate, a year ago, it wasn’t realistic to think that the Senate might flip.”

The increasing optimism for Democrats comes amid rising voter anger over the economy as well as the Trump administration’s war in Iran. The party holds an 11-point lead over Republicans on the general congressional ballot, per the latest Emerson College Polling survey.

And, with the House out of session until after the election and the Senate in town for just a few more days, some strategists suggest it falls on President Trump to turn the tides for his party before Nov. 3.

“If a deal was cut on the Iran war, and if there was an actual winding down and an end game that was presented to the American people, I think that would be very helpful to Republicans,” Darling said.

“I think that is the one issue that would move a lot of voters back over into the Republican fold.”

But with no end of the war in sight before the midterms, polling suggests a favorable outcome for Democrats is likely, even as experts acknowledge it’s an imperfect science.

A Texas Public Opinion Research poll released on Friday showed Talarico leading Paxton by 5 points, just outside the survey’s margin of error. Talarico also handily led Paxton among independents — 58 percent to 26 percent, respectively.

A recent Marist poll also showed Talarico leading Paxton by 6 points — 50 percent to 44 percent, respectively. Some polling also has Talarico slightly ahead by a point or tied.

A separate Marist poll had Democrat Josh Turek polling ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson by 8 points in the Iowa Senate race.

While the Iowa Senate race is expected to be much tighter, the Republican-leaning pollster Trafalgar Group suggested in a recent survey that Hinson only edged Turek out by 2 points — while separately forecasting GOP Sen. Darline Graham (S.C.) polling within the margin of error against Democrat Annie Andrews in South Carolina.

The last time Iowa was represented by a Democrat in the Senate was 18 years ago, while South Carolina hasn’t elected a member of the party to the upper chamber since 1998.

“Republicans’ scandal-plagued candidates are facing backlash for making everything cost more — and Democrats are well-positioned to flip seats and win the majority,” said Maeve Coyle, a spokesperson for the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm.

Steve Jarding, a longtime Democratic strategist who’s worked on Senate campaigns, estimated the party could win between six and seven seats in the fall. Unless the GOP injects an influx of cash into all the competitive races, Jarding suggested, it’s increasingly unlikely Republicans will narrow the gap.

“If you’re the party in power, and your message isn’t working for you, it’s almost too late by June. But certainly, you get into the first of October where we’re at— it’s almost impossible to change that narrative,” Jarding said.

Other Republicans are inclined to put less stock into the polls after a pair of surveys were off base in Democratic primaries in Wisconsin and Michigan this summer.

“Democrats should think twice before relying too heavily on the same rosy polling that grossly overestimated socialist Abdul El-Sayed in last month’s Michigan primary,” said Bernadette Breslin, a spokesperson for the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm.

But Republican pollster Whit Ayres suggested Senate control remains up in the air with as many as 12 seats in play.

“It’s overwhelmingly the increase in inflation and an economy that can’t seem to get going that has created an environment that’s favorable for the party out of power at the moment,” he said.

One bright spot for Republicans is its immense cash advantage over Democrats. Recent figures from ad-tracking firm AdImpact show the GOP spending more in future ad reservations in eight of nine competitive Senate elections. Democrats narrowly edge out Republicans in North Carolina.

The GOP is also in a position to benefit from a recent Supreme Court ruling paving the way for campaigns and state parties to coordinate and spend unlimited amounts of money.

Still, the overwhelmingly negative polling for the GOP is impossible to ignore.

“Republicans can look at the fact that the polling is an inexact science, and it could be pretty far off,” Darling said. “But notwithstanding that, it still doesn’t look great because the polls have been overwhelmingly bad news for Republicans.”