Cook Political Report shifts 19 House seats in Democrats’ favor

Nonpartisan election forecaster Cook Political Report has shifted 19 House seats in Democrats’ direction less than two weeks before the midterm elections, according to its latest report published Friday.

The shift includes six Republicans whose races were previously noted as “toss-ups” and have now been changed to “Lean Democrat”: Reps. Juan Ciscomani (Ariz.), Gabe Evans (Colo.), Jen Kiggans (Va.) and Derrick Van Orden (Wis.).

“Following this latest round of ratings changes, Democrats now are favored outright in the 218 seats they need to win control of the House,” Cook Political Report’s U.S. House editor Erin Covey wrote in the report. “Republicans, meanwhile, are favored in 198 seats, rated Solid, Likely, or Lean Republican. That leaves 17 races rated as pure Toss Ups.”

Two open seats — in Kentucky’s 6th District and Texas’s 35th District — have been moved from “Lean Republican” to “toss-up,” according to Cook’s predictions. In Kentucky’s 6th District, Democrat Zach Dembo is facing Republican Ralph Alvarado. In Texas’s 35th District, Democrat Johnny Garcia is going up against Republican Carlos De La Cruz.

Per Cook’s analysis, the “likeliest outcome” is “Democrats flipping between 12 and 22 seats.” According to the projections, Democrats will hold anywhere between 227 to 237 seats next year, while Republicans are projected to hold between 198 and 208 seats.

Cook’s analysis comes as President Trump’s approval ratings hit new lows in the latest polls from The New York Times/Siena University and CNN in the final stretch of the upcoming midterm elections. The Times reported Tuesday that the president’s 36 percent approval was a record low for all Times/Siena polls.

Trump’s approval rating in the CNN poll stood at 32 percent, also a historic low as reported by the outlet Tuesday , with voters expressing broad dissatisfaction with both the economy and the state of the country.