Tuesday’s election results could spell real trouble for Florida Republicans

There was a political earthquake in Florida on Tuesday evening that could create prediction-shifting tremors — not only up until the midterm elections, but right through the 2028 presidential election. That earthquake was personified by far-left Florida state Rep. Angie Nixon (D), who absolutely crushed Alex Vindman, the Democratic Party’s sanctioned and favored candidate.

The morning after, while I was still trying to wrap my mind around the shocking upset, I came across a piece from RealClearPolitics titled : “Florida Democrats Hand Republicans a November Gift.” I believe the message of the headline is way off the mark. For me — and for several Republican operatives I spoke with this week — Nixon’s decisive victory represents a neon red warning sign for Florida Republicans.

In recent years, many pundits have claimed Florida to be “deep red” politically. I don’t believe that to be the case. I do believe Gov. Ron DeSantis has proven himself to be an exceptional governor, saving the state from the draconian dictates rolled out during the COVID-19 pandemic. But unfortunately for the Republican Party, DeSantis is not on the ballot in November. Neither is his highly capable wife, Casey DeSantis — a woman who, at one point, was considered a lock to succeed her husband, had she chosen to run.

It was not to be, and Tuesday just made it official. The Republican nominee for governor is Rep. Byron Donalds (R), the handpicked candidate of President Trump . And handpicked or not, Donalds may be sailing into some turbulent water.

The first sign is that although Donalds won the primary, a majority of Republicans voted for other candidates . One reason was the devastating ads challenger Jay Collins ran against him — ads that Democrats will ensure have a second life from now until November.

I have spoken with numerous Republicans in Florida, and none wanted Donalds as the nominee. Not one. Is that indicative of how the election will go in November? Maybe not, but these are Republicans who desperately want to keep Florida red.

Next is the victory by state Rep. Angie Nixon (D). Give her some props — Vindman and the entrenched Democratic Party outspent her about 16 to one , and she still humiliated him. But is her victory more about her strengths and connection with voters, or is it part of the growing voter dissatisfaction — and outright anger with incumbents — that we see sprouting up across the country? If it is the latter, which I believe it is, then that also spells trouble for Donalds and the Republican Party of Florida.

Not only is Nixon the new, new thing but Donalds is part of the old, old thing — most especially for young voters, the working class, and non-white voters. Rising star or not, Nixon is going to bring out a bunch of new voters. And even if they may not be able to put her over the top against Republican incumbent Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.), they will likely vote against Donalds while checking the box for Nixon.

It has been reported that there are 1.5 million more registered Republicans in Florida than Democrats. On paper, that seems to signal a slam-dunk for Donalds. But not so fast. A certain percentage of that 1.5 million identified as Republicans only because of support for DeSantis. Some share will stay home since DeSantis is not on the ballot in November. Some of them are angry with Trump for endorsing Donalds and not giving Casey DeSantis the proper time or respect to evaluate a potential run. Some share aren’t very impressed with Donalds, as the primary results demonstrate.

Nixon got more than 700,000 votes during the Democratic primary in deep red Florida. Only a fool would underestimate her potential in the general. The promise of free stuff has worked since the invention of politics. Pardon the pun, but that promise will partially trump Trump and his various endorsements.

While not running against him, Nixon will still be an X factor in the eventual Donalds vote total — one that doesn’t even take into account Democratic primary winner for governor David Jolly , nor how much money the national party will pour into Florida.

So did the Nixon victory “hand Republicans a November Gift”? Quite the opposite. I believe it has energized the Democratic base in the state while opening more eyes to the possibility that Florida is not as nearly as red as some have come to believe.

Donalds was mostly off the voter radar screen as a congressman. But now that he is the Republican nominee for governor, he is going to come under increased scrutiny. The betting odds may still list him as the favorite come November, but no one I know will be shocked if he goes down to defeat.

If I were the Republican leadership, I would cut out the personal attack nonsense and start addressing the issues that most matter to the working class.

Douglas MacKinnon is a former White House and Pentagon official.