Anthropic Could Go Public in Weeks. Here Are the 5 Numbers That Will Actually Matter.

Anthropic confidentially filed to go public on June 1, and its actual S-1 could drop within weeks. When it does, there are a few headline numbers many investors will likely fixate on, such as its expected $2 trillion valuation and the potentially record-breaking amount of money the company aims to raise.

However, from a long-term investment perspective, these are among the least important numbers, especially when taken in isolation. Here are the five things I'll be reading very carefully when Anthropic's public S-1 is filed, which could help me decide whether the stock is worth owning.

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5 things that matter more than Anthropic's $2 trillion valuation

Anthropic has reported its revenue run rate several times, and the growth certainly sounds impressive. It reported its run rate went from $47 billion (annualized) in mid-May to $65 billion at the end of July, with roughly $11.5 billion in booked revenue for the second quarter. There is also a question of gross revenue versus net revenue. In other words, how much is passed through to third parties and how much is actual revenue for Anthropic.

The company's S-1 will include audited, booked numbers for the first time, so we'll have actual figures to perform valuation analysis.

We don't know what Anthropic's gross margins are, with several analysts projecting that Anthropic will have gross margins in the high 70s (percentage) and will reach positive free cash flow by 2028. But when the S-1 comes out, we'll know where gross margins stand now and how they've evolved over time. Gross margin is especially important for a fast-growing software company that isn't yet profitable, so this will be a key piece of information.

Anthropic's reported obligations include more than $100 billion to AWS over a decade, $50 billion to Fluidstack, and $30 billion to Microsoft 's (NASDAQ:MSFT) Azure. But these likely don't tell the full story. Recent reports put Anthropic's cloud, chip, and data center commitments at more than $500 billion over the next decade. Anthropic's S-1 will include a table of contractual obligations, and this will be a very important number for investors to pay attention to.