Dick's Sporting Goods' stock crash reveals a major problem for struggling Nike

Nike's ( NKE ) dreadful stretch of earnings under the thought-to-be-savior CEO Elliott Hill may not be ending anytime soon, judging by what key partner Dick's Sporting Goods ( DKS ) said this week.

"I think we have the [footwear] hangover right now," Dick's Sporting Goods executive chair Ed Stack told analysts on his earnings call Tuesday. "We are going through that with these legacy silhouettes. The new styles of shoes that are coming out from brands across the board — whether it be Nike, whether it be Adidas, whether it be On, HOKA — we are going through that reset right now."

Lifestyle sneakers from Nike, with minimal fashion looks, have been solid performers for Dick's in recent years, but they are quickly falling out of favor with consumers.

In turn, Nike is taking aggressive markdowns to clear slow-moving product. This has led competing brands to replicate these tactics, which is sparking a "domino effect of pricing pressure on styles of yesterday," Jefferies analyst Jonathan Matuszewski said.

"This is unfortunate for Dick's given their high reliance on Nike and growing reliance on other emerging brands in recent years," Matuszewski wrote in a note.

It sure looks unfortunate: Dick's second quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $3.53, below estimates for $3.76.

The company also slashed its full-year EPS outlook to $10.94 to $11.94, down from its previous forecast of $13.27 to $14.27.

Dick's stock crashed 30.7% on Tuesday, pushing the shares below all key moving averages, per Yahoo Finance AlphaSpace data. The stock is down another 1% today.

The Dick's shocker could signal more pain ahead for Nike.

In late June, Nike reported fiscal fourth quarter revenue of $11 billion, reflecting a 1% decline on a reported basis and a 4% drop on a currency-neutral basis.

While the company's diluted earnings per share of $0.72 appeared significantly stronger year over year, it was heavily distorted by a massive $0.52 per share one-time benefit from an expected tariff recovery.

The company projected fiscal first quarter revenues to be down by a low-to-mid-single-digit percentage. It reiterated flat earnings per share growth over the next three quarters, excluding benefits from tariff recovery proceeds.

"No hints yet that revenues can turn positive in the foreseeable future — we don't see a clear reason to expand the P/E [ratio] from here (from 22x FY27 consensus EPS)," Evercore ISI analyst Michael Binetti wrote in a note.

The company continues to struggle with execution issues under CEO Elliott Hill, who boomeranged back to Nike in October 2024 and recently replaced the company's CFO. Changing sneaker preferences as highlighted by Dick's, cautious consumers, and hungry competitors like On Holding ( ONON ) continue to hold the company back and delay any signs of a turnaround.