Morning Bid: September storm

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets

World markets enter September with another government bond storm brewing.

After Federal Reserve chief Kevin Warsh's distinctly hawkish Jackson Hole speech on ‌Friday, U.S. Treasury yields pushed higher across the curve, with the benchmark 10-year borrowing rate hitting its highest since President Donald ‌Trump took office in January last year.

But first, listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast, where we discuss ​the bond rout and Shein's lackluster IPO.

While much of the financial world's attention has been on the U.S. 30-year bond lately, it's the rising 10-year yield which will have bigger ripple effects across the economy in mortgage rates and other business and consumer loans.

The shakeout began after Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on ‌Friday, where he made it clear that the ⁠central bank has "work to do" if inflation doesn't come back to target. He also noted that he believes current Fed settings are not restricting the economy in any significant way right now.

With little likely to change ⁠on the inflation front before the Fed meets again later this month, futures markets now see a two-thirds chance of a rate rise then. Another jump higher in world crude oil prices this week on the resumption of military exchanges in the Iran war will just add to the pressure.

And ​with the ​Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank also likely to raise ​interest rates this month, bond markets everywhere are agitated.

Japan's ‌10-year government bond yield hit 3% for the first time since 1996 on Tuesday, with the revival of the dollar since the Warsh speech weighing heavily on the yen again. That's amplifying calls for the BOJ to follow up the summer's currency market intervention with a rate rise this month.

Meantime, Europe's tricky budget season and electoral calendar are adding to bond market angst there.

In equities, Asian shares were mixed on Tuesday and U.S. futures were in the red before the bell. Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed 1% lower, led by a slump in ‌Shein shares after the fast-fashion retailer's market debut.

The earnings season ​is not quite done yet, with some Big Tech names still to report this ​week. Dell and Palo Alto Networks update later on ​Tuesday, but the big one will be chip giant Broadcom tomorrow.