Saudi Export Pivot Sends Brent Below $105

Saudi Aramco shifts crude exports to the Persian Gulf, easing supply fears and pushing Brent below $105.

Last week's market panic about the 7 million b/d East-West pipeline remaining offline for weeks gave way to a slightly more nuanced outlook this week, with Saudi Aramco re-orienting all its loadings to the Persian Gulf. Whilst flows from Ras Tanura still carry the risk of potential Iranian drone strikes in the Strait, the fact that Saudi Aramco keeps on offering crude to Asian buyers (in contrast to its Europeans buyers) has calmed markets, sending ICE Brent below $105 per barrel, a couple of cents below its last week's settlement price.

Saudi Arabia Races to Repair East-West Pipeline. Saudi Aramco expects to restore flows through its damaged 7 million b/d East-West pipeline within days after drone attacks damaged multiple pumping stations, seeking to restart the conduit at least partially to ease pressure on loadings in the Gulf.

Canada Oil Sands Win New Tax Breaks. Canada's federal government has expanded investment tax incentives, helping support more than C$100 billion ($72 billion) of planned oil sands, pipeline and CCS spending over the next decade, positioning new projects to face an effective tax rate of just 6.4%.

Container Traffic Through Suez Starts to Recover. Container lines are cautiously returning to the Red Sea, with 27% of Asia-Europe container capacity now transiting the Suez Canal, up from 17% in early August, although renewed Houthi-Saudi hostilities continue to deter cargo owners from a full return.

LNG Canada Nears FID on Mulled 2 nd Phase. The Shell-led (LON:SHEL) LNG Canada project could see an approval of its 14 mtpa Phase 2 expansion as early as October, doubling the project's capacity to 28 mtpa and reinforcing Ottawa's pivot towards Asian markets amidst a deteriorating US trade outlook.

Libya Resolves Dispute Behind Oil Outage. Libya has settled a dispute with a faction of the Petroleum Facilities Guard that temporarily disrupted crude output at the North Hamada field, averting broader risks to the 300,000 b/d El Sharara and 90,000 b/d El Feel fields amidst brewing internal discontent.

Exxon Hikes Global Emission Outlook. In its 2026 annual energy outlook, US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) reiterated its expectations of oil demand rising to 105 million b/d by 2050, up by 5 million b/d from current levels, whilst hiking global emissions forecast by 10% to 30 billion tonnes of CO2.

India Warns US Against Trade Talk Pressure. India pushed back against proposed US tariffs of up to 100% on buyers of Russian crude, warning the measures could complicate bilateral trade negotiations and threaten energy security, as September imports of Indian refiners from Russia average 2 million b/d.