Netflix Has Momentum Despite Being Down in 2026. One Analyst’s Price Target Implies 70% Upside

Netflix (NFLX) shed 38% over 12 months, but BMO's Brian Pitz carries a Street-high $135 target implying 73% upside from current levels.

Disney (DIS) implies ~22% upside and Roku surged 43% YTD, but neither matches the analyst-implied upside Netflix carries among streaming peers.

Management guided $12.5B in 2026 free cash flow and ~$3B in ad revenue, supported by a record $4.7B quarterly buyback.

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Netflix currently trades at $78.25 while the average Wall Street price target sits at $93.66. That leaves a gap of roughly 20% between the current quote and consensus.

Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) is the world's largest subscription streaming service, guiding 2026 revenue to $51.0B to $51.4B with an ad-supported tier on track to roughly double. Wall Street has watched the name closely as it flipped from streaming's untouchable growth story to a battleground stock in the span of nine months. Consensus isn't even the aggressive read here: BMO Capital Markets carries a Street-high target of $135 on the shares.

What Went Wrong Between January and Summer

Netflix has shed over a third of its value in a year, down 37.77% over 12 months and 16.54% year to date. The unraveling accelerated when Netflix announced an all-cash acquisition of Warner Bros. at $27.75 per share in late 2025, pausing buybacks and hitching the story to a $42.2B bridge facility. Q3 2025 earnings then missed on a $619 million Brazilian tax charge that compressed operating margin to 28.2%.

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The saga got messier. Netflix terminated the original WBD agreement in Q1 2026 and paid a $2.80B breakup fee, which hit free cash flow through higher cash taxes. Free cash flow fell to $1.53B in Q2 from $2.27B a year earlier. The S&P 500, meanwhile, is up 12.94% year to date. Netflix moved sharply in the opposite direction.