SpaceX’s Falcon 9 Wind Down: Rocket Lab Is Set To Gain, Here’s How

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX ) has reportedly stopped accepting new reservations for Falcon 9 rideshare missions, its most reliable and commercially dominant rocket, as it bets that Starship will be ready to fill the resulting capacity gap. It is a bold bet on Starship, the vehicle Elon Musk has described as "a fork in the road of history." However, Starship has yet to demonstrate a tower catch and reflight of its upper stage, while a rare Sell rating from DZ Bank shows that some investors remain skeptical about the timeline. The shift leaves investors with two very different narratives: the company's ability to execute its own transition and the opportunity opening up for its closest medium-lift rival: Rocket Lab Corp (NASDAQ: RKLB ).

While these two companies are fighting for the space economy, SpaceX's merger into a friendly company is again being debated in the market.

The decision is a strong vote of confidence in Starship, with Elon Musk saying Falcon will wind down "once Starship is flying reliably several times per week," allowing the company to shift resources toward a fully reusable vehicle with much higher cadence and payload capacity. However, that confidence is what skeptics are challenging.

DZ Bank started coverage with a Sell rating and a $100 price target. The firm pointed to SpaceX's heavy capital spending, its $60 billion acquisition, and the expected increase in tradable shares as IPO lock-ups expire. Separately, other analysts have identified Starship's unproven commercial status as a key execution risk. Starship has yet to demonstrate a tower catch and reflight of its upper stage, which presents a tougher challenge than the booster, while the company's customers reportedly expect Falcon rideshares could require an extension if Starship slips. With Falcon 9 having completed 107 missions in 2026 through September 19, the decision appears to be a strategic bet rather than a response to capacity constraints, but it depends on an unproven timeline.

Rocket Lab Corporation (NASDAQ: RKLB ) stands as the most direct beneficiary of the shift. Its Neutron rocket targets the medium-lift, reusable market that Falcon 9 currently dominates. The company's second-quarter backlog reached $2.36 billion, increasing 137% year-over-year, and more than 90 launches are under contract. If satellite operators turn to alternative launch providers, Rocket Lab could absorb some of that demand through Electron in the short term and Neutron after its debut, although Rocket Lab has said the window for an end-of-2026 Neutron launch is narrowing.