Analysis-Global food inflation is expected to intensify as supply shocks pile up

By Naveen Thukral and Bernadette Christina

SINGAPORE/JAKARTA, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Muhamad Yasin, a 63-year-old parking attendant in central Jakarta, says he has cut back on meals as rising prices have put food staples beyond his reach.

"I used to be able to get rice, tempeh and tofu for 7,000 to 8,000 rupiah ($0.39 to $0.44). Now it's 15,000 rupiah," said Yasin, who earns 200,000 to 300,000 rupiah a week, beside the minimarket where he ‌watches over parked motorcycles.

Global food inflation is poised to accelerate in the coming months and persist well into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Nino-driven drought squeeze cereal supplies, putting additional pressure on vulnerable consumers like Yasin, ‌a father of four.

In Indonesia, rice prices have already jumped to record highs amid forecasts of delayed rains, while the cost of bread in Egypt has risen by a quarter and sugar prices in India hit an all-time high as the weakest monsoon in over a decade curbed production.

"All this has put ​considerable pressure on the system," said Maximo Torero, chief economist at the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

"We will see a bigger impact towards the end of the year, at the beginning of next year and potentially throughout next year."

The world's poorest consumers are being hit the hardest as food prices rise sharply in low- and middle-income countries across the Middle East, North Africa and Asia, where food accounts for a larger share of household spending.

According to the World Bank, food prices in the September quarter outpaced headline inflation in 22% of the 150 countries it analysed, up from 14% in the previous quarter.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in a basket of internationally traded commodities, averaged 136 points in September, the highest reading since November 2022.

Rising prices heighten the risk of social ‌unrest and could prompt governments that are key suppliers to impose export bans, further exacerbating ⁠shortages.

Attacks on Black Sea grain infrastructure have disrupted wheat shipments, forcing top importers Egypt and Indonesia to seek alternative supplies, while Red Sea insecurity diverts vessels onto longer, costlier routes around Africa.

The US-Israeli war on Iran has raised fuel prices and disrupted fertiliser exports through the Strait of Hormuz, driving up farming costs even as dry El Nino weather reduces output in India and ⁠Southeast Asia.

Wheat prices are up more than 30% in 2026, while rice prices in key Asian exporting countries have risen 10% to 13% in spite of large inventories. Fertiliser prices are off peaks reached earlier in the Iran war, but they remain elevated.