Prediction: Rocket Lab's Revenue Tops $1.5 Billion in 2027 Without Counting Iridium

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) keeps breaking its own records. The space company's revenue rose 62% year over year to a record $234 million in the second quarter of 2026. Its backlog grew to a record $2.36 billion, up 137%.

And management's guidance for third-quarter revenue of $250 million to $265 million calls for yet another record.

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There's a complication ahead, though. In June, Rocket Lab agreed to buy satellite operator Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM) in an $8 billion deal expected to close in mid-2027.

Iridium produced about $872 million of revenue in 2025. So when the deal closes, Rocket Lab's reported totals will fold in a large business it bought.

That's why my prediction draws a hard line. I think Rocket Lab's own operations (not counting a dollar from Iridium) top $1.5 billion of revenue in 2027.

This year's total isn't complete yet. Rocket Lab reported a little over $200 million of revenue in the first quarter and $234 million in the second, for about $434 million through June.

The midpoint of third-quarter guidance would bring the company to about $692 million with a quarter left. A fourth quarter around $280 million (my estimate, in line with this year's sequential gains) would put 2026 at about $970 million, up about 61% from the $602 million Rocket Lab reported in 2025. That 2025 total was itself up 38%.

From there, my prediction asks for less than it might seem. Hitting $1.5 billion in 2027 from about $970 million takes growth of about 55%. Put another way, it asks Rocket Lab to slow down.

After all, revenue rose about 63% year over year in the first quarter and 62% in the second. Those rates benefited from acquisitions that now sit in the base, so next year's growth must come largely from the business as it stands. Even if fourth-quarter revenue only equals the third quarter's guided midpoint, putting 2026 near $950 million, the requirement is about 58% -- still below today's pace.

Nearly half the backlog is expected to convert within a year

A surprising amount of next year's revenue is already under contract. In its second-quarter filing, the company reported about 45% of its $2.36 billion backlog (around $1.1 billion) is expected to be recognized as revenue within 12 months. Some of that arrives in late 2026. But the window extends through mid-2027, and the other 55% sits behind it.