Stocks Finish Mostly Lower as Rising Crude Boosts Bond Yields

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) closed down by -0.33% on Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down by -0.70%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up by +0.08%. E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) fell -0.28%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) rose +0.07%.

Stock indices settled mostly lower on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling to a 1-week low on a flare-up in geopolitical risks. The broader market was under pressure on Monday as renewed Middle East tensions boosted crude oil prices, raised inflation expectations, pushed bond yields higher, and complicated the US inflation outlook. WTI crude oil rose more than +2% on Monday after the US and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time in about a month. The 10-year T-note yield jumped to a 19-month high of 4.77% on Monday.

Stocks also had some negative carryover from last Friday when Fed Chair Warsh vowed to bring inflation back to target and said financial conditions aren't restrictive, bolstering the chance of a Fed rate hike next month. The chance of a Fed interest rate hike at next month's FOMC meeting rose to 65% on Monday, up from 36% before he spoke last Friday.

On the positive side, energy producers rose on Monday after crude oil prices rallied and cryptocurrency stocks rose after Bitcoin climbed more than 2%. Cybersecurity stocks also rose on Monday, supporting gains in the Nasdaq 100.

Chinese economic news was mixed after China's Aug manufacturing PMI rose +0.6 to 49.8, stronger than expectations of 49.5. However, the Aug non-manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 49.0, weaker than expectations of an increase to 49.4.

Oct WTI crude oil prices (CLV26) jumped more than +2% on Monday to a 1-week high as Middle East tensions flared. The US Central Command said it targeted Iranian rocket launchers preparing to send mines into the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran retaliated by firing missiles and drones at US air bases in Jordan, while the United Arab Emirates said it intercepted drones from Iran. Crude prices added to their gains on Monday when Axios reported that President Trump is weighing limited strikes against Iran to prevent it from reconstituting its radar and missile capabilities to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz.