Democrats just broke GOP’s grip on Texas. What comes next?

A seismic political shift occurred in Texas on Tuesday, as Democrats flipped a Senate seat and the governor’s mansion in a traditionally conservative stronghold.

With Sen.-elect James Talarico’s double-digit victory over state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa’s upset win over three-term Gov. Greg Abbott (R), Democrats broke the GOP’s grip on the second-most populous state in the country.

The results shift Texas, which Republicans have long touted as a business-friendly alternative for companies looking to flee Democratic-run California, from a reliably red state to a place where Democrats can win statewide.

“I think Texas, like South Carolina and like the entire South, is pregnant with possibility,” Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright told The Hill.

Prior to Tuesday, a Democrat had not won a Texas gubernatorial race since former Gov. Ann Richards in 1990. The party’s dry spell in Texas Senate races was even longer, as former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen in 1988 was the last Democrat from the Lone Star State elected to the upper chamber.

During that time, Texas transitioned from a purple state to one where Republicans could reliably expect to win statewide races.

That paid dividends for business interests. Texas has the most oil refineries of any state in the country, with 29, according to data from Apollo Technical. That is 15 more than Louisiana, the next-closest state.

Under Abbott, Texas also became a destination for companies across industries. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, Charles Schwab, Chevron, Oracle, SpaceX and Tesla have moved to the Lone Star State from California, with company leaders often citing the business-friendly environment and lower taxes in Texas.

That included Elon Musk, the CEO of SpaceX and Tesla. Musk, the richest man in the world, directed $158 million to the Paxton-aligned Texas PAC last month.

That bet did not pay off, as Talarico campaigned on reining in the influence of wealthy donors and billionaires on politics en route to a comfortable victory over the state attorney general.

During his victory speech, the incoming senator referenced Musk, saying he took on “the richest man in the world” and comparing himself to the underdog David who defeated Goliath.

“We just sent a message to every billionaire mega-donor, every trillionaire mega-donor, every corrupt defender of this broken political system. In this state, in this country, power belongs to the people,” Talarico remarked .

Hinojosa spoke in a similar tone Tuesday, saying her victory proved Texas was “by and for the people” and did not “belong” to billionaires.

“Does Texas belong to the farmers and ranchers who have worked this land for generations, or the corporations trying to buy it up?” she said, referencing the dynamics of her race against Abbott.

The strong night for Democrats in Texas did not apply solely to Talarico and Hinojosa. Democratic state Rep. Vikki Goodwin defeated Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R), while Democrats won the races for state attorney general, comptroller, railroad commissioner and agriculture commissioner.

Democrats also captured the Texas state House, ending Republicans’ 24-year run in charge of both state Legislature chambers.

Saul Elbein, a native Texan who runs the nonprofit energy industry watchdog Future Heist , argued statewide Democratic victories will not usher in a new era of restrictions on business.

Elbein told The Hill that while companies attempting to build data centers “may have a harder time” with Hinojosa in the governor’s mansion, businesses will benefit from Democrats focusing on economic issues.

“I think the new group of people who have come in are, at the very least, deeply serious about governance in a way that I think is a return to what business is looking for, even if they would prefer to pay lower taxes,” added Elbein, also a former reporter for The Hill.

Pundits and politicians cited a variety of factors for the blue earthquake in Texas , which came as Democrats flipped the House , Senate and multiple governor’s mansions across the country .

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who lost the GOP primary to the scandal-plagued Paxton earlier this year, said the results show “character and integrity still matter” to voters.

“Here in Texas, traditional conservatives and independents were asked to swallow an almost comical list of personal scandals and improprieties,” Cornyn wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed published Wednesday.

Seawright cited economic concerns, referencing the impact of high diesel prices on farmers and cattle ranchers in Texas. The price of diesel has soared during the Iran war , with a gallon costing roughly $2.51 more on average than it did a year ago in Texas, according to AAA .

Doug Heye, the former communications director for the Republican National Committee, faulted President Trump. The GOP strategist said Tuesday’s results stemmed from a “totally self-created Trump Quake” which acted “as an albatross that smothered Republicans” across the country.

“Add to that good smart Democratic candidates like Talarico and Hinojosa and Trump created the perfect Democratic storm,” Heye added via email.

Whether that “storm” signals Texas being consistently competitive in statewide races is unclear, Seawright acknowledged.

The Democratic strategist noted that “no coalition is forever,” saying his party will have to “expand on” what Talarico, Hinojosa and other Democrats pulled off “every single cycle” going forward.

Elbein, though, said he could “absolutely see” a Democrat winning Texas in the 2028 presidential election — if the party delivers on its promises to voters.

“I don’t see any particular reason, based on the numbers in the electorate, why Texas wouldn’t be in play,” he noted.