‘We’re looking at a bubble here’: Experts including Ray Dalio advise on how to protect your wealth as bond yields spike
See where they’re placing their bets as long-dated bonds push past 5%.
Bonds are on every investor's mind nowadays.
Even if you don't identify as a bond buyer, it's hard to ignore the 5%-plus yields on long-dated U.S. Treasuries. Interest rates this good may be tempting. On the flip side, they can be a bit terrifying when you consider the impact on the broader economy.
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The greater interest you're getting on bonds also isn't risk-free, as you're still losing on the actual price of the bond. If you can't hold a long-dated bond until maturity, you can take a loss on your position.
Treasury bonds are also still relative underperformers versus other sectors. For example, the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ ETF (Nasdaq:QQQ) — powered by AI stocks — has had returns of over 20% this year.
So does it make sense to buy into the bond selloff? The Wall Street Journal reached out to six of the world's most powerful investment fund managers, including Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio , with just that question. They all had different answers, but their insights may give you some ideas on where to put your investment dollars.
BlackRock's CIO of Global Fixed Income, Rick Rieder, told the Journal that historical trends are on bond investors' side. "People recognize that once you get the 10-year above 5%, you tend to make money," he said, adding that he's already begun adding some of these long-dated bonds to his portfolio.
Bryan Whalen, CIO of Fixed Income for TCW, points to factors including an eventual end to the war in Iran and the high concentration of debt in the hands of "interest-rate-insensitive" AI hyperscalers. He predicts bondholders will be rewarded for their patience.
Even relatively cautious investors like Pimco's CIO Dan Ivascyn see high-yielding bonds as an opportunity. Ivascyn noted he sees signs of slowing in the U.S. economy due to higher yields but that sustained spending from AI companies, coupled with the homebuyers who already secured lower fixed mortgage rates, is likely to stave off a recession. If you take advantage of current yields, he noted, "You can build a 6% or 7% high-quality portfolio."
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