Wall Street Sees a Huge Rebound for Viking Therapeutics. Here's Why Analysts Are So Optimistic.

Viking Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VKTX) is a much-loved stock on Wall Street. It's trading at around $30 a share at the time of this writing, but the analyst consensus target price on Visible Alpha is $90.89, with nine brokers rating it the equivalent of a buy and only one with a neutral rating on the stock.

The case for buying Viking Therapeutics stock

Investors are hoping Viking's dual GLP-1 and GIP agonist , VK2735, can break into the effective duopoly on weight loss drugs held by Eli Lilly 's (NYSE: LLY) Zepbound (tirzepatide) and Novo Nordisk 's (NYSE: NVO) Wegovy (semaglutide). VK2735 and tirzepatide are dual agonists, while semaglutide is a mono-agonist targeting the GLP-1 receptor. I'll return to this point in a moment.

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Two key factors suggest VK2735 could carve out a very profitable share of the market. The first is that it's being developed as a dual formulation therapy, opening up the possibility of initial weight loss from taking subcutaneous (injectable) VK2735 before switching to a more convenient oral VK2735 dose for maintenance. In addition, as an Oppenheimer analyst recently noted, oral VK2735 could also be taken after initial dosing with injectable tirzepatide and semaglutide. The second factor is the potential for a steeper onset of weight loss from VK2735.

These potential benefits encourage Wall Street analysts to model a consensus of $141 million in revenue in 2028, rising to $1.3 billion in 2030, with the vast majority coming from VK2735, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence . It's a large figure when compared to the current market cap of $3.5 billion.

Comparing the tirzepatide phase 3 results with those of VK2735 in phase 2 suggests it may have an advantage in delivering weight loss quicker than its already approved and marketed rival.

Before getting too excited by the data, readers should note that these are significantly different trials. The VK2735 trial had more aggressive titration and a much smaller population (176 vs. 2,539) than the Eli Lilly trial. Still, the VK2735 results are impressive, and the ongoing 78-week phase 3 trial (VANQUISH-1) may reveal a higher weight loss ceiling for VK2735 than for tirzepatide over a similar duration. For reference, the phase 3 VANQUISH-1 maximum dose will be 17.5mg, compared to the 15mg maximum dose in the phase 2 VENTURE trial in the table, which could result in even greater peak weight loss.