The AI Stock That Could Beat NVIDIA by 2027

AMD shares are up 129% YTD, Data Center revenue doubled to $6.7B, and Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic committed a combined 14 GW of MI-series GPUs.

NVIDIA has gained just 14% YTD while AMD's FY2027 EPS consensus rising to $15.51 makes a $750 price target only 48x forward earnings.

Lisa Su guided server CPU revenue to grow 70%-plus in 2027, but any MI500 delay or new export controls would reset the entire model.

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AMD ( NASDAQ:AMD ) is having the year NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) had in 2023. Shares are up 128.8% year-to-date, Data Center revenue more than doubled to a record $6.7 billion last quarter, and Lisa Su has locked in gigawatt-scale commitments from OpenAI, Meta, and Anthropic. NVIDIA, by contrast, is up just 13.63% YTD.

The question I want to answer: can AMD ride this second-half Helios ramp and its 2027 MI500 launch to $750 per share by 2027, decisively out-returning NVIDIA along the way?

Why AMD Shares Stalled in the Last Month

Before I make the bull case, the recent weakness deserves attention. AMD is down 4.74% over the past month even after climbing 2.6% in the past week.

Two things are weighing on the stock. First, a beta of 2.48 means every macro wobble hits this name twice as hard as the market. Second, investors are digesting the reality that Gaming revenue fell 31% year-over-year and U.S. export controls on the MI308 to China still hang over the accelerator story. After a 209% one-year run, some digestion is healthy.

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Wall Street Sees 25% Upside. I Think That Undersells 2027

The consensus target is $615.07, backed by 4 strong buys, 39 buys, 11 holds, and zero sells. Our own model is pricier: a base case of $480.90, an optimistic case of $610.14, and a bear case of $377.09, at 0.9 confidence.

Both frameworks look correct for the next 12 months. Both look too conservative for 2027. With 33 upward FY2027 EPS revisions in the last 30 days against only 3 downward, and 80% analyst bullishness, the consensus is still catching up to the story.