Tesla's Q3 deliveries loom large as the Roadster slips again

Tesla ( TSLA ) will release highly anticipated third quarter delivery numbers at the end of this week. The report comes after the company delayed its Roadster EV reveal.

Wall Street expects Tesla to report Q3 deliveries of 463,000, per Bloomberg consensus, down sequentially compared to Q2 and a 6.8% drop (497,000 units) delivered a year ago.

Last year's Q3 report was a big one, as it included the last US EV sales in which the $7,500 federal tax credit was in play. The drop could have been larger, but Tesla appears to have gained more market share in the US EV space , European sales have improved, and Tesla's Giga Shanghai exports more vehicles for other markets.

"Overall EU registrations tracked ~-9% y/y, with strength in France and Germany, offset by declines in the UK, Italy, and Spain," JPMorgan's Rajat Gupta wrote in a note to clients. "In China, July-August wholesale volumes, including exports, increased +19% y/y, comprising exports up +92% y/y while domestic retail sales are estimated to have declined -21% y/y."

JPMorgan did lower its Q3 estimate to 482,000 units, citing weakness in China and the US.

Perhaps weakness in the US, however, could have been worse. Positive feedback and reviews of Tesla's supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) may have helped sales. Tesla said at the end of Q2 that FSD subscriptions reached 1.48 million, a 56% jump compared to a year ago. Most FSD subscribers are likely based in the US.

The backdrop of Tesla's report — likely to hit the wires on Friday — comes after the company delayed its Roadster reveal , originally slated for Oct. 1.

"We've been tracking the weather closely with local meteorologists, but given the severe conditions predicted & because this event can only be held outdoors, we've made the difficult decision to reschedule," the company said in an X post , adding that the new date would be Oct. 15.

A two-week delay due to the weather caught many off guard. Perhaps Tesla needed to iron out some kinks before the reveal and did not want to reveal as much.

The Information reported several weeks ago that the reveal event could include a demonstration of a limited-edition ​version equipped with cold-gas thrusters developed in collaboration with ​SpaceX ( SPCX ), potentially enabling some form of hovering or flying capability. This would likely necessitate an outdoor event, as Tesla indicated.

Tesla announced the Roadster's successor in 2017, took reservations with high deposits, and originally said deliveries would begin in 2020. Those initial reservation holders have been waiting quite a long time — and will now have to wait two weeks longer.

Pras Subramanian is Lead Auto Reporter for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on X and on Instagram .