Oil prices tumble as Oman and Iran make an unexpected move

There comes a time in an oil-price cycle when the narrative breaks. What's happening in oil markets now may be one of those times.

Oil prices fell hard on Aug. 25 on a flimsy reason. Officials from Oman and Iran announced they agreed to establish "a temporary joint maritime corridor" in the Strait of Hormuz. They said they planned to implement "a joint project" to clear mines from the strait.

The Strait is the key waterway through which, before war erupted in March, as much as 20% of the world's oil has flowed every day .

That does not mean an opening of the corridor will be established soon and that the mine-clearing is about to start. But apparently they're talking.

That was enough to push Brent crude, the global benchmark, down 3.9% to $88.58 per 42-gallon barrel. Light sweet crude, the benchmark U.S. crude, fell 3.1% to $82.36 a barrel on Aug. 25. That is a 6.2% decline for Brent and a 5.4% decline in U.S. crude since Aug. 21.

If you really want to see a big drop, we offer up the price for Murban crude, the benchmark crude produced by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. Murban was down 8.6% to $92.71 a barrel, according to Oilprice.com .

The oil-price drop helped stocks generally move higher. Except for one group: energy stocks. The Energy Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund (XLE) fell 1.7%.

The excitement may have been juiced a bit by reports that the U.S. economic pressure on Iran may be "more likely to lead to negotiations than military escalation," The Wall Street Journal said .

Meanwhile, The New York Times said the State Department was preparing to send envoys back to the Middle East .

If all that is true and the lower prices hold, it should mean gasoline prices are about to head lower.

"If all that is true" is the operative question. Oil, stock and even bond prices have moved up and down wildly as traders large and small try to make quick trades and profits. The latest news was greeted with skepticism.

"This whole thing is a mess," Amrita Sen, founder and director of market intelligence at Energy Aspects , a global consulting firm, told CNBC.

U.S. average prices are still holding above $4 a gallon, according to GasBuddy.com and AAA Fuel Prices . Crude oil prices are still more than 40% higher than they were in December.

The problem with the Persian Gulf War is nothing has been predictable, and accuracy of details has been suspect.

President Trump announced the war against Iran waged by the United States and Israel was over after the first week and Iran was begging for a deal.