Stocks Supported by Slumping Crude Prices and Lower Bond Yields

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up by +0.16% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.12%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up by +0.51%. E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.15%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +0.45%.

Stock indices are climbing today, supported by weakness in crude oil prices, which is pushing bond yields lower. WTI crude oil is down more than -3% today, easing inflation expectations and knocking the 10-year T-note yield down by -5 bp to 4.65%. Crude prices tumbled today on a news report that the US would be returning diplomats to Middle East embassies, easing concerns about an escalation of the Iran war. Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are also moving higher today, rebounding from recent weakness. Short covering has emerged in chipmakers ahead of Nvidia's quarterly earnings results after the close on Wednesday.

Stocks fell from their best levels today on weaker-than-expected US economic news, including a fall in new home sales to a 6-month low and a drop in consumer confidence to a 7-month low.

The US June S&P Composite-20 Home Price Index rose +2.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.8% y/y and the largest year-over-year increase in a year.

US July new home sales fell -10.5% m/m to a 6-month low of 607,000, weaker than expectations of 620,000.

The US July Richmond Fed manufacturing survey of current conditions unexpectedly fell -1 to 4, weaker than expectations of an increase to 7.

The Conference Board US Aug consumer confidence index fell -0.8 to a 7-month low of 89.4, weaker than expectations of 90.2.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that the US will begin a campaign to sever Iran from the global economy, warning that any country doing business with Iran risks facing US sanctions. He said the US is focusing on five of Iran's "most vital lifelines," including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping, and that countries will have a defined timeline to shut down economic cooperation with Iran; if they don't, the Treasury will act unilaterally.