Why $5 gasoline is about to force a major holiday shift

Autumn starts on Sept. 22, and, for years, one of the more pleasant aspects of the season is that gasoline prices have come down and come down a lot.

Don't expect much of a break in the 2026 holiday season.

You might see some declines in the next three months, but nothing like in recent years when the price declines from September until the end of the year have averaged about 10%.

And that means holiday travel plans may shift.

But, you ask, isn't U.S. gasoline demand pretty much constant? Not necessarily. U.S. Energy Administration data show that gasoline demand in July and August of 2026 was off about 1% from a year ago.

And going into the summer season, the Los Angeles Times reported , there were many indications that many families were planning to substitute long vacation trips with shorter excursions.

The reason you're seeing high prices is simple enough: The war between the United States and Israel and Iran has disrupted global energy markets more violently than anyone expected.

Gas prices up 4% in past week; diesel up 6%

As it is, the U.S. national average price of gasoline was at about $4.47 a gallon on Sept. 18, up slightly on the day and up 4% seven days earlier, according to both AAA Fuels and GasBuddy.com . The year to date change: around 57%.

Diesel was at a record $6.4776 on Sept. 18, up 6.5% in a week and up 79% this year. It broke its old 2022 peak of $5.815 on Sept. 4 and has hit 13 new highs since.

Diesel is a critical fuel for the global economy because it's the dominant fuel used in trucking, agriculture, construction, mining and other industries.

Some energy watchers who watch the global energy situation closely believe the U.S. average price of gasoline will go higher.

Jeff Currie, former head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, said retail gas prices may hit $5 a gallon just in time for the midterm elections on Nov. 3.

Perhaps after the midterms retail prices will start to come down. But for many families, the damage will have been done. And they may choose to hold off big drives over the holiday season. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is forecasting retail gasoline prices will average $3.95 a gallon in the fourth quarter.

Why fuel prices move up and down every year

Motor fuel prices, either gasoline or diesel, have distinct seasonal patterns. They typically rise from mid-to-late winter into late spring. Prices rise as refiners build stores of gasoline or diesel specifically meant for summer driving.