JPMorgan's Petno sees bank fees surging while warning the cycle feels 'too good'

JPMorgan stock ( JPM ) finished more than 1% higher on Tuesday after co-president Doug Petno delivered an upbeat third quarter revenue forecast.

Petno, who is CEO of JPMorgan's commercial and investment bank, said he expects the firm's investment banking and trading fees for the third quarter to be up in the "mid to high teens" compared to the year-ago period.

"Our clients are seeing through the market volatility and the fog of uncertainty," Petno said, speaking at a Barclays financial services conference in New York Tuesday afternoon.

Shares for other Wall Street banks also pared losses following Petno's comments, including Goldman Sachs ( GS ), Morgan Stanley ( MS ), Citigroup ( C ), Bank of America ( BAC ). Wells Fargo ( WFC ) rose Tuesday.

The outlook puts JPMorgan at the bullish end for quarterly Wall Street fees compared to rivals, as other executives are offering more cautious views on the period after an unusually strong first half.

Wall Street banks reaped a whopper first half of the year in fees from their investment banking, trading, financing, and wealth management businesses, lifted by surging AI-driven capital markets activity, along with a wider dealmaking revival driven by supply chain repositioning and remilitarization.

But the backdrop has become less euphoric. Following a sharp unwind in the global AI trade in July, US stocks have traded lower since mid-August, and global dealmaking volume has slowed.

"I think it's safe to say, 3Q is no 2Q," Morgan Stanley co-president Daniel Simkowitz said earlier Tuesday at the same conference, while remaining optimistic about the longer-term deal pipeline. After SpaceX ( SPCX ) delivered a record IPO in June, bankers are hoping for more mega deals, in particular a public offering from Anthropic planned for later this fall.

Wells Fargo expects both investment banking fees and markets revenue to rise by roughly "mid-single digits" year over year, CFO Mike Santomassimo said earlier Tuesday.

At Citigroup, the third quarter outlook for dealmaking and trading fees is on pace to see "mid-single-digit" and "low-single-digit" growth, CFO Gonzalo Luchetti told investors at the same conference on Monday.

Bank of America's stock fell more than 5% on Monday after CEO Brian Moynihan delivered an underwhelming forecast .

Moynihan said that investment banking fees are on pace to reach $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion in the third quarter, or down 10% to 20% from the $2 billion the company earned in the third quarter of last year.

Bank of America's sales and trading business, meanwhile, is poised to be flat year over year. The downshift could make positive operating leverage difficult in the third quarter, Moynihan added.