The rest of Chipotle's year hinges on brisket

Chipotle ( CMG ) shares popped nearly 7% in pre-market trading on Thursday on hopes that a weak year will be wiped away by a strong fourth quarter, in large part because of the debut of brisket.

The company will bring back its fan favorite "mesquite smoked" brisket on Nov. 5.

"We continue to see reasons for improving same-store sales growth… Following earnings and our conversations with the company, we are maintaining our 4Q same-store sales growth estimate of 2% (consensus 2.9%) and believe brisket and additional marketing can support 3%–4% trends in November/December," EvercoreISI David Palmer said.

Palmer isn't alone on the Street in salivating at the potential of brisket for Chipotle to cap the year.

"Improving trends late in October, coupled with the launch of fan-favorite brisket and incremental marketing actions, give us confidence that comps can reach the 3%-4% range in November and December, paving the way for a stronger traffic start to 2027," said Bernstein analyst Danilo Gargiulo.

An argument could be made that Chipotle didn't earn the market reaction today, and an expected brisket sales bump shouldn't be priced in.

The company reported revenue of $3.29 billion, slightly topping Wall Street consensus estimates of roughly $3.28 billion.

But, the bottom line missed expectations as adjusted earnings landed at $0.27 per share, falling short of analyst projections of $0.29 per share due to rising labor and corporate overhead.

And same-store sales growth wasn't exactly sizzling at 2.1%.

"We continue to believe there is enough operational & marketing self-help to allow for traffic improvement and return to margin stability, while the stock's multiple has fully re-rated to reflect a more moderate – yet still well above average – growth profile," JP Morgan analyst John Ivankoe said.

For Chipotle's sake, the brisket better be so good people come back for it in December after trying it in November.

Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor, host of the Sozzi Unleashed morning show, the ' Power Players With Brian Sozzi' podcast and a member of Yahoo Finance's editorial leadership team.