DraftKings Sees Strong NFL Start, Prediction Markets Surge as $1B EBITDA Target Holds

DraftKings reported strong core momentum: Sportsbook handle rose 15% year over year at the start of the NFL season, while the company maintained its target of approximately $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2026 .

Prediction markets are scaling rapidly: Trading volume reached nearly 2.5 times July levels, with more than 1 million customers participating and DraftKings claiming a near-double-digit share of sports prediction-market activity.

Growth investments and iGaming recovery could support future earnings: DraftKings is considering increased marketing for prediction markets, has regained iGaming share in select states, and continues to target roughly 30% adjusted EBITDA margins in mature sportsbook markets.

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DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) CEO and Chairman Jason Robins said the company is seeing strong early-season engagement across its core sportsbook business and its newer prediction markets offering, while maintaining its expectation of about $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2026.

Speaking with Wells Fargo gaming, lodging and leisure analyst Trey Bowers, Robins said sportsbook handle had risen 15% year over year month-to-date at the start of the NFL season. He also said the company's iGaming business has begun to regain market share in certain states, with growth accelerating in recent months.

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"Really, really healthy trends in the core business," Robins said. He added that the core business remains on track to deliver approximately $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA in 2026 and should grow "pretty materially" in 2027. DraftKings plans to provide a more detailed 2027 outlook during its November earnings call.

Robins characterized prediction markets as a significant growth opportunity, saying customer trading volume had increased to nearly 2.5 times its July level and was continuing to rise weekly. He said DraftKings had approached a double-digit share of consumer volume in sports prediction markets, with a higher share in NFL-related activity.

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The company has prioritized major U.S. sports in building its offering. Robins said DraftKings now has three times as many NFL markets as competing prediction products, along with roughly 1.5 times as many college football and Major League Baseball markets.