All eyes on Warsh in Wyoming

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is under the microscope as he heads to Jackson Hole for the Wyoming town’s signature economic symposium Friday, where eagle-eyed investors will be searching for any clue about the central bank’s plans for grappling with sticky inflation and an increasingly jittery bond market .

Warsh, who has opted for a less-is-more approach to communication in his first few months as Fed chair, is set to give remarks at the annual gathering of central bankers Friday morning.

His speech at Jackson Hole, a long-standing tradition for the head of the Fed, comes at a moment when persistent inflation has complicated its calculus on interest rates — even as President Trump keeps up the drumbeat for rate cuts.

“Historically, Jackson Hole has been looked at as this kind of utopic platform where the chairman has the opportunity to announce notable changes or new directives and policy,” Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Financial’s chief economist, told The Hill.

“But now we’re talking about Chair Warsh,” she said. “And he has shied away from offering any forward guidance and limiting Fed communication overall.”

Since taking the reins of the Fed in late May, Warsh has sought to distinguish himself from his predecessor by stemming the flow of commentary coming out of the central bank and moving away from the practice of signaling the Fed’s future moves.

This has left investors, used to a steady diet of communication from prior Fed chiefs, scrambling to find purchase in Warsh’s often sparse remarks and putting a spotlight on Jackson Hole.

“Considering how clear Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has been about how much he wants to say little, his upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole conference is getting a lot of attention,” Ian Katz, managing director at Capital Alpha Partners, wrote in a note Monday.

“Investors are concerned that lack of clarity from Warsh on Friday could further rattle the bond market,” he continued.

The bond market has recently put Wall Street and Washington on edge. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond hit a 19-year high last week, surpassing 5.3 percent for the first time since 2007.

It ticked down briefly after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to intervene, doubling the maximum amount of its long-term debt the government can buy back, before spiking again. As of Thursday afternoon, the 30-year yield sat at 5.18 percent.

“It’s not so much that investors expect clear signals from Warsh, but they would like to get some idea of the Fed’s reaction function – how it would respond to changing economic conditions,” Katz added.

Welcome to The Hill’s Business & Economy newsletter , I’m Julia Shapero — bringing you the latest on the intersection of Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue.

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Key business and economic news with implications this week and beyond:

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) on Thursday again pressed for the U.S. to return to talks with Canada amid the escalating trade war between two countries.

The Canadian government late Wednesday exempted seafood and fish products from its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods.

Keep an eye on your bank account, Venmo and Zelle the next few weeks. Money could be coming your way from a privacy class action settlement that “hundreds of millions” may have qualified for.

Business and economic news we’ve flagged from other outlets:

Americans of all incomes head to dollar stores to stay frugal ( New York Times )

Nvidia adds $442 billion in second biggest ever stock surge ( Bloomberg )

President Trump is enduring a difficult summer in public opinion polls, with his falling approval rating deepening concerns for Republicans that they could lose the House and Senate majorities this fall. Read more

The Justice Department (DOJ) on Thursday defended renewed plans to inscribe President Trump’s name on the Kennedy Center, insisting it does not run afoul of previous court rulings that found the change was unlawful. Read more

Opinions related to business and economic issues submitted to The Hill:

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