Anthropic IPO odds still favour October despite roadshow slippage, Polymarket data shows

Polymarket traders are still pricing October as the most likely month for Anthropic's stock market listing, even after reports that the roadshow has slipped later than first expected.

Working from the platform's cumulative contracts, the implied probability of a listing occurring specifically within October stands at 63%, calculated from the 64% chance priced in for a listing by 31 October against a 1% chance priced in for 30 September.

That compares with an implied 21% probability for November and just 6% for December, based on the gap between the 85% priced in for 30 November, the 64% for 31 October, and the 91% for 31 December.

Two weeks ago, the 31 October contract alone was trading above 80%, before slipping back as reports emerged that Anthropic's formal roadshow, the period in which executives pitch the company to institutional investors, would not begin before mid-October.

That timeline was reportedly pushed back partly by ongoing negotiations over a $15 billion revolving credit facility, alongside a delay to the public prospectus filing.

Anthropic's underwriters, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) , are said to be targeting a listing in the days before the 3 November US midterm elections, according to market commentary attached to the Polymarket contract.

The company confidentially filed its registration statement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on 1 June, and has retained the law firm Wilson Sonsini for the legal groundwork.

Its last private funding round, a $65 billion raise in May, valued Anthropic at $965 billion, with reports putting its annualised revenue run rate at $65 billion by the end of July.

A separate Polymarket contract on Anthropic's eventual market capitalisation shows traders split between a valuation of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, on 26%, and $2 trillion to $2.25 trillion, on 22%.

Anthropic has not confirmed a date and has declined to comment on the reported timetable.