Visa sees US holiday retail sales growing 4.5%, fastest pace since 2021

Nov 5 (Reuters) - US holiday retail sales are set to rise 4.5% year-on-year in the last ‌two months of 2026, marking the strongest growth ‌since 2021, according to research by Visa's Business and Economics Insights.

• The research said the forecast pointed to continued consumer resilience supported by solid income growth and household wealth even though high inflation is set ‌to play a part ⁠in where "holiday dollars go"

• "Income growth continues to provide an important foundation for spending and ⁠while higher prices remain part of the picture, we expect another healthy holiday season," said Michael Brown, principal ​US economist ​at Visa

• Visa and ​Mastercard both beat earnings ‌estimates for the quarter ended September 30, underscoring the fact that spending has remained resilient

• Consumers are set to spend an average of $777 on holiday gifts this year, up 5.6% from $736 in 2025, the research showed, ‌even though customers are still ​adapting to high prices

• Despite over ​half of the ​surveyed consumers wishing for travel and events, ‌holiday budgets favor traditional spending. ​Only 15% will ​prioritize buying experiences, while 27% plan to purchase physical gifts instead, according to the research

• Only ​households earning over $200,000 ‌increased holiday airfare spending, while lower-income groups pulled ​back their bookings

(Reporting by Pritam Biswas in ​Bengaluru; Editing by Shreya Biswas)