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Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Gigantum.net
Business

The man who created the 4% rule for retirement savings now wants you to spend more — says 5.5% is 'more realistic'

After decades of additional research, Bill Bengen says the old benchmark may be too cautious, but fear of running out of money still keeps many retirees from...

· 434 words

If you're in retirement or planning for it, you may want to reconsider your withdrawal rate.

Bill Bengen, the financial adviser who got generations of retirement savers hooked on the 4% rule , has increased his recommendation for how much retirees can safely spend.

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In an interview with Business Insider, Bengen said his influential 4% rule of thumb should now be closer to 4.7% for retirees who want to prepare for the worst. But under what he considers more realistic conditions today, he actually recommends a starting withdrawal rate of 5.5%.

It may sound like a small adjustment, but it could have major ramifications for how savers plan for retirement, and how much they allow themselves to spend once they get there.

Under the 4% rule developed by Bengen in 1994, retirees were advised to withdraw 4% of their portfolio in the first year of retirement. In subsequent years, they would adjust that initial dollar amount for inflation.

Historically, the approach was designed to make a portfolio last roughly 30 years, including through some very bad stock market conditions.

Bengen's update reflects decades of additional research, as well as his assessment of the current market. In May, he reiterated to Morningstar his original recommendation was based on a portfolio of U.S. large-cap stocks and intermediate-term U.S. Treasurys.

When he later tested portfolios containing additional asset classes, including small- and micro-cap stocks, their historical performance and diversification benefits allowed the portfolios to withstand larger withdrawals, eventually lifting his most conservative rate from 4% to 4.7%.

The 5.5% recommendation is based on a different calculation. Rather than planning for the worst-case scenario, Bengen considers factors such as stock market valuations and expected inflation to determine a more realistic withdrawal rate under current conditions.

And it makes a real difference. Say you had a $1 million 401(k). You would start at roughly $40,000 per year under the 4% rule, versus $47,000 at 4.7% or $55,000 at 5.5%. The irony is that the original rule was so conservative that retirees who followed it historically could have ended their 30-year retirement with substantial savings left over, according to statistician Stefan Sharkansky .

Gathered from external sources. Rights to this text belong to whoever originally published it.